February 22, 2024

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New Day One Outlook Adds Marginal Risk for Tonight/Early Monday for Extreme Southwest Alabama : The Alabama Weather Blog

2 min read

The new SPC Day Out Severe Weather Outlook has added a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for extreme South Alabama including parts of Washington, Clarke, Monroe, and Conecuh Counties and all of Mobile and Baldwin for later tonight and Monday morning as a low pressure system tries to spin up along the Gulf Coast, perhaps bringing enough instability and shear for a couple of strong to severe storms with the possibility of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes.

The actual text of the outlook says:

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

Valid 242000Z – 251200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST…

…SUMMARY…
A brief tornado and localized severe gusts are possible over parts
of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning.

…Central Gulf Coast…
Midday guidance along with the 12Z ECMWF suggest potential for weak
cyclogenesis near the central Gulf Coast tonight, as a shortwave
impulse over TX moves east to the Lower MS Valley before pivoting
northeast tomorrow morning. With mid 60s surface dew points already
established across the north-central Gulf and far southeast LA, it
is plausible that weak surface-based instability will at least brush
the central Gulf Coast later tonight. This should become coincident
with the trailing portion of a strengthening low-level jet across
the Deep South. While deep convection ongoing over the northwest
Gulf should largely translate east across the north-central Gulf,
this setup may support an embedded supercell or two impinging
on/developing over a portion of the central Gulf Coast States.

..Grams.. 12/24/2023

Like I saw somewhere this week: December in the South means turning on your air conditioner while waiting out a tornado watch. Amen.

Category: Alabama’s Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site’s official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site’s severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian



Bill Murray

2023-12-24 20:17:25

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