MSE Creative Consulting Blog: My Election Forecast

Because I’ve spent my entire adult life making forecasts — primarily about the future state of the atmosphere and corresponding effects; and in recent years also about diseases and economics — the last few weeks I have been asked, over and over, what I believe the outcome of the election will be. Here is my answer….

The forecast below corresponds to my thoughts on the subject. 

Of course, the question is whether President Trump win enough votes to overcome what University of Tennessee law professor Glenn Reynolds refers to as the “margin of fraud.” Before you react negatively to that comment, consider this tweet posted earlier today from the Attorney General of Pennsylvania:

President Trump is “going to lose”? Before the first vote is counted? Per the article, Mr. Shapiro has presented no evidence Mr. Trump is working overtime to “subtract votes.” [Note: if he has such evidence, it should be immediately presented!] My interpretation of what General Shapiro has written is that he is working a public relations angle to create an excuse for tampering with the votes, either through his office or his allies’. This is an example of what conservatives mean by the margin of fraud.