May 15, 2021

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MSE Creative Consulting Blog: Dangerous Overnight Flooding

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Extreme Weather Summary, 12:30am

Flooding Update

Here is the rainfall for the 48 hours ending at midnight. 

The pinks are rainfalls of 6 to 7 inches. They have fallen on already-saturated ground. The radar map from 12:20am (below) shows rains continuing to fall over parts of Oklahoma and northern Arkansas.

This is a different type of flood map than we usually post. It depicts the “recurrence interval” of the rainfall over the 24 hours ending at midnight. 

  • The dark red = a once in ten year rainfall event. 
  • There is a small area in northwest Arkansas where it is a once in 75 year rainfall event. 
The National Weather Service says the flooding on the Illinois River, especially near Tallequah, is extremely serious and “life-threatening.” Severe flooding is also occurring in northwest Arkansas. 

Severe Hailstorms

This is a map of hail swaths. The dark red areas are giant hail of 2″ or more in diameter. There was softball-sized hail west of San Antonio. There were three metropolitan areas with extensive hail damage:

  • San Antonio
  • Ft. Worth
  • Norman, Oklahoma

The forecast of giant hail (posting below) up to 4″ was extraordinary. 

There is a nationwide autoglass shortage. It is going to be some time before all of these autos are repaired. For the insurance industry, these hail swaths represent at least $1 billion in damage and likely more. 

As of this time, there are tornado watches in maroon. They will change during the night.

Mike Smith

2021-04-29 05:33:00

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