April 14, 2021

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MODERATE / ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 13, 2021…9:30 A.M. EST

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  Without these sites, I’m pretty much left in the dark.  The F5 Data maps I post as well for severe weather, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), are also out of pocket to me. Please keep in mind, even when the hurricane season ends, I have to keep up on these site subscriptions for severe weather and winter weather.  In all, I put out $68 a month to provide you, what I hope are accurate forecasts. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the information I use in my forecasts
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Don’t forget to set your clocks ahead tonight, prior to turning in for the evening.

Greetings to everyone!

Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

This forecast is based on the latest run of the NAM-WRF Mesoscale model, regarding the F5 DATA Severe Weather Maps.

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has issued a MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE…AN ENHANCED RISK SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK AREA

…FROM THE SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered to numerous severe storms are expected later today into early tonight from west Texas into western Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas. The most significant severe weather threat, including strong tornadoes and very large hail, is expected this afternoon/evening across the east central and southeast Texas Panhandle.

The following graphic is linked to the full text SPC DAY 1 outlook:
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

TORNADO OUTLOOK

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
WIND OUTLOOK (REGARDING STRAIGHT LINE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS)

HAIL OUTLOOK

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Based on my analysis of the SPC outlook text, and outlook maps, indices and parameters are forecast to be in place this afternoon, into early evening, that could make for a dangerous situation within the ENHANCED and MODERATE risk areas.  Based on my analysis of the most recent run of the NAM-WRF model, and the information contained in the SPC outlook, the atmosphere is forecast to become very unstable around early afternoon, with the greatest probability for the strongest severe weather to occur after noon time CST, in an approximate time frame between 3:00 p.m. CST to 7:00 p.m. CST.  Forecast indices and parameters indicate the probability of large hail, strong, damaging thunderstorm gusts, and isolated strong, long track tornadoes (EF2+).  The following indices were analyzed in F5 DATA Severe Weather Forecast software.  Please note, regarding the STP (Significant Tornado Parameter), two separate values are given…the first set is for the 3:00 p.m. CST forecast map, and the second set is for the 6:00 p.m. CST forecast map.
SBCAPE: 1000 – 2000 j/Kg
MLCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/Kg
LIFTED INDEX: -4 to -8
LAPSE RATE: 7.5 – 8.0 C/km
STP: 2 – 8 / 5 – 13 (WITHIN THE ENHANCED AND MODERATE RISK)
SWEAT: 450 – 500
VGP (Vorticity Generation Parameter): 0.2 – 0.4
VGP = Vorticity Generation Parameter. The VGP is meant to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft. Values greater than 0.2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.

Based on the indices and parameters, there is enough lift and available energy, along with steep mid level lapse rates, forecast to produce large hail.  This, along with EHI (Energy Helicity Index) values of 1 – 2, very high STP values, and SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) values of 200+ are enough to spawn some isolated strong and long track tornado activity.  The following 2 links will provide some explanation of what these indices mean:
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
Based on the outlook and parameters, I will not rule out the probability of a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch being issued sometime this afternoon within the ENHANCED and MODERATE risk areas.  Residents withing the risk areas should monitor the sky and situation closely this afternoon, and be prepared to take IMMEDIATE action and seek safe and sturdy shelter should a TORNADO WARNING be issued for their area.

The following outlines in the F5 data maps, indicate where the best probability for severe weather and tornadic activity to occur:

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY 3:00 P.M. CST

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY 6:00 P.M. CST

The following is an animated GIF from the NAM-WRF showing the STP parameters for this afternoon:
NAM SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)


The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)

Use the following link to see your area forecast.  Once on the site, type in your zip code in the green box:
https://www.weather.gov/iwx/fallfrostinfo
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)


You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2021-03-13 14:28:55

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