Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
Analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models indicates an area of low pressure forecast to develop by this evening over the Carolina’s and Georgia area. As this low moves on a general ENE direction, it will begin to deepen, and draw colder air southward. This low is forecast to move just along the coastline on Saturday morning. As it enters the Atlantic, the system becomes a coastal storm, and should deepen quickly, eventually reaching around 978 mb off the New England coast, south of Maine.
ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST GIF LOOP
Both models are in good agreement of sustained surface winds reaching tropical storm strength as this storm deepens along the coast / offshore. Given the surface wind forecast, this should create high waves and seas near the coast and especially offshore. Areas north of the center of the low should be aware of possible coastal flooding, some minor beach erosion along south and east facing beaches, and rip currents during the event. Residents along the Mid Atlantic and New England regions should remain away from the shore, and small craft are advised to remain in port until the dangerous conditions subside.
ECMWF AND GFS SURFACE WINDS FORECAST GIF LOOP
ECMWF AND WAVEWATCH WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION GIF LOOP
This system will also be responsible for ushering in more cold air, bringing one again, much colder air to Florida. The following GIF loops are forecast surface temperatures over the eastern half of the country during the next 72 hours:
ECMWF AND GFS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
Precipitation will be associated with this storm, in the form of snow, which in the first 72 hours should be confined mainly to the New England area. The following GIF loops indicate total snowfall over 120 hours, or five days, based on Kuchera snowfall totals. This method generally takes into account temperature and warm air mixing.
ECMWF AND GFS TOTAL SNOWFALL (KUCHERA METHOD) GIF LOOPS
The following NWS hazard and warning map will provide you information for your area from your local NWS office. Please click on the image, and after the map loads, click on your area.
NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (LINKED)
The following frost / freeze outlook map only shows forecast conditions for the following day, and is the outlook for the morning of Dec. 05, 2020:
FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK
The following radar loop is linked. IF the map does not update automatically, click the image for the current radar loop:
INTELLICAST RADAR ANIMATION
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Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST