Mesoscale Discussion — Severe Thunderstorm Watch Unlikely Due to Limited Storm Coverage
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SUMMARY… Strong to locally severe gusts (45-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage are possible through the early evening. The limited coverage of damaging gusts will likely preclude the need for a small severe thunderstorm watch.
DISCUSSION… Visible-satellite and radar imagery shows a developing cluster of intensifying thunderstorms straddling I-65 in north-central AL as of 345pm CDT. The Birmingham 88D VAD shows westerly low-level flow veering to northerly and increasing into the 25-30 kt range in the 4-6 km layer. The mean wind will favor southeast storm motions with this activity moving into the Birmingham and Anniston areas over the next 1-2 hours. The airmass has become moderately unstable with lower 90s temperatures and dewpoints near 70 deg F. With 0-3 km lapse rates in excess of 8 deg C/km, water loading will be the primary mechanism for isolated wet microbursts.
Scott Martin
2022-08-15 20:55:58
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