June 22, 2024

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MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK OUTLOOK…ISSUED APR. 19, 2024…10:40 A.M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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Climate model data has updated this morning with new NINO 3.4 and forecast ONI data.  I will have an updated hurricane pre-season update later this afternoon.

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/SPC_outlook_final_updated.png
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CONVERSION TABLE FOR DAY 1 OUTLOOKS
image002day1.conv

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a MARGINAL risk of severe thunderstorms in the current day 1 outlook: THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today.

SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook text.  Click for any updated outlines)
day1otlk_1300
TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_torn
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_hail
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_wind
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS, NAM 3km, and SPC SREF forecast models, information derived from forecast indices indicate the highest probable severe threats are most likely hail and damaging thunderstorm winds/gusts.  Indices indicate a moderately unstable environment for today.  Moderate CAPE values, along with moderate lifted indices and borderline moderate deep layer shear, should allow for hail associated with stronger cells, which may be marginally severe.  Since the environment is projected to be only moderately unstable, the lower deep layer shear values, and very low SRH values should limit any tornado activity, and activity should be isolated.  The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning. Bear in mind, indices recorded below are at the time of peak intensity.  Indices meanings can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 1000 – 2000 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 1250 – 1500 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 1500 – 2500 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 50 – 100 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 150 – 250 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE:  <100 m2/s2

L. I.: -3 to -5
SCP: 1 – 6
STP: 0.5 – 1.0
0 -6 km SHEAR: 35 – 45 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 30
– 40 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.0 – 6.5C
DEWPOINT: 60F – 67F
EHI: 1.5 – 1.9
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 47 – 49C
K INDEX: 32 – 33C
SWEAT INDEX: 300 – 350

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

SWEAT INDEX
Screenshot 2024-03-30 at 09-30-56 SWEAT Index
The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:
NAM SCP FORECAST (2:00 p.m. 19 APR. – MIDNIGHT 20 APR. EDT)
nam-nest-se-supercell_comp-1713506400-1713549600-1713585600-80
NAM STP FORECAST (2:00 p.m. 19 APR. – MIDNIGHT 20 APR. EDT)nam-nest-se-sig_tor-1713506400-1713549600-1713585600-80
This is from the 00Z update from NADOCAST.  Click on the image for the updates page.  Once there, click on the time on the left (i.e. 12Z), then click on the link containing (models-conus-sig tornado-abs-calib)
nadocast_2022_models_conus_sig_tornado_abs_calib_20240419_t00z_f12-35
Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link below, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas.radr_.us_
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day and weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-04-19 14:33:08

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