A deepening surface low is near Natchez MS tonight. It will head northeast across Alabama overnight.
Ahead of it, rain is overspreading our state. There is some lightning south of I-59 across Sumter, Greene, and Hale Counties, extending back into Mississippi.
A sharp line of storms extends from near Natchez to west of Vicksburg to near Lafayette, LA.
South and east of the low, dewpoints are in the lower and middle 60s. Instability values are low at the surface, except along the coast and over Southeast Louisiana. But there is elevated CAPE over southern Mississippi and Southwest and South Alabama, which will support storms later into the overnight.
There are a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings in western Mississippi at this hour.
The SPC has extended the Marginal Risk severe weather threat (their lowest risk category) generally along I-59/20 into Central Alabama.
There is sufficient wind shear that as this limited instability lifts northeastward along and southeast of the low, there is a low risk of damaging winds and a brief tornado or two.
Keep a close eye on later information here on the AlabamaWX blog tonight in case the threat materializes further.
We will have hourly updates through the evening. Next update at 8:30 p.m.
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Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site’s official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site’s severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian