April 25, 2024

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MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED FEB. 28, 2024…9:40 A.M. EST

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/SPC_outlook_final_updated.png
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a MARGINAL
risk of severe thunderstorms in the current day 1 outlook: ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN STATES…AND EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN U.S. COASTAL PLAIN…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from the west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas.

SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook)
day1otlk_1300
TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_torn
HAIL PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_hail
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_wind
Showers and thunderstorms were already ongoing this morning, with watches issued.  Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, NAM model, HRRR model, and SPC SREF, information derived from forecast indices indicate damaging thunderstorm winds and gusts should be the main threat today.  Based on the indices and parameters (averaged between the NAM and HRRR) and based on the time of peak activity, deep layer and effective shear, along with veering winds, will produce strong thunderstorm winds.  Severe weather should initiate between now, through 4:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. EST, then weaken as the system continues moving eastward.  Based on the low CAPE values and weak lifted index, the probability for hail is very low.  Albeit CAPE values are fairly low, deep layer shear and SRH values indicate and isolated weak tornado or two could occur within stronger areas of the squall line.  The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning.
SBCAPE: 250 – 500 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 250 – 500 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 250 – 500 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 250 – 350 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 200 – 350 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 – 200 m2/s2

L. I.: 0 to -1
STP: 1 – 2
SCP: 1 – 2
EFF. SHEAR: 30 – 50 kts
0 -6 km SHEAR: 70 – 100 kts

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.5C
DEWPOINT: 54F – 60F
EHI: 0.5 – 0.8
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 44 – 46C
K INDEX: 29 – 31C

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM and HRRR models.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:

NAM SCP FORECAST (9:00 a.m. 28 FEB. – 6:00 p.m. 28 FEB. EST)
nam-nest-east-supercell_comp-1709100000-1709128800-1709161200-80
NAM STP FORECAST (9:00 a.m. 27 FEB. – 6:00 p.m. 28 FEB. EST)
nam-nest-east-sig_tor-1709100000-1709128800-1709161200-80
HRRR SCP FORECAST (9:00 a.m. 28 FEB. – 6:00 p.m. 28 FEB. EST)
hrrr-east-supercell_comp-1709121600-1709128800-1709161200-80
HRRR STP FORECAST (9:00 a.m. 28 FEB. – 6:00 p.m. 28 FEB. EST)
hrrr-east-sig_tor-1709118000-1709128800-1709161200-80
Based on the forecast of lower CAPE values, I am providing the SHERB (Severe Hazards in Environments with Reduced Buoyancy).  Values of 1.0+ on the map indicate where the best probability rests for experiencing the strongest severe weather.
NAM SHERB FORECAST MAP:
SHERBnam212F012
Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link above, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas.radr_.us_
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-02-28 14:35:53

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