February 22, 2024

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MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK…ISSUED JAN. 25, 2024…10:50 A.M. EST

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/SPC_outlook_final_updated.png
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a MARGINAL risk of strong to severe thunderstorms in the current outlook: FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA NORTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY…

…SPC SUMMARY…
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today.

SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook)
day1otlk_1300
TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_torn
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HAIL PROBABILITY
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DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_wind
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOPPLER RADAR
SOUTHMISSVLY_loop
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, and NAM model, information derived from forecast indices indicate the most likely threat could be damaging wind gusts given the forecast of  50 – 60 kts of deep layer shear, and veering winds. This combination will allow for rotating updrafts, though analysis of updraft helicity shows values to be on the lower end of the scale.  By afternoon (3:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m. CST), instability should increase somewhat, as higher theta-e air will advect northward, along with any daytime heating that may occur over the MS/AL area.  Analysis of various indices maps tend to indicate the strongest severe weather may be isolated to the area shown by the tornado probability outline, and the best probability for weak tornado activity should be within the red outline in the second tornado probability map.  Although CAPE is forecast to be modest, mid level lapse rates are weak, implying weak to marginal instability.  Should daytime heating become more prevalent and indices increase, I wouldn’t rule out an upgrade to and isolated SLIGHT risk area.  The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning and pertain to the MARGINAL risk area.  Indices meanings can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 750 – 1000 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 500 – 750 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 750 – 1000 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 200 – 300 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 200 – 300 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 – 200 m2/s2

L. I.: -1 to -3
STP: 1 – 4
SCP: 3 – 8
EFF. SHEAR: 35 – 40 kts
0 -6 km SHEAR: 50 – 60 kts

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.0 – 6.5C
DEWPOINT: 64F – 70F
EHI: 0.6 – 1.0
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 43 – 48C
K INDEX: 29 – 34

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:

NAM SCP FORECAST (12:00 NOON 25 JAN. – 6:00 P.M. 25 JAN.)
nam-nest-alms-supercell_comp-1706184000-1706205600-1706227200-80
NAM STP FORECAST (12:00 NOON 25 JAN. – 6:00 P.M. 25 JAN.)
nam-nest-alms-sig_tor-1706184000-1706205600-1706227200-80
Excessive rainfall is in the forecast as well.  Based on analysis of the 500 mb pattern and frontal boundary position, the setup has really not changed. The combination of these 2 features will allow for enough moisture to flow north from the GOMEX, along with warm air advection and enough lift to provide the ingredients for the heavy rainfall.   Some rainfall totals could exceed “3 – 4” inches total by the end of the period in isolated locations.  At the time of analysis, rain and severe thunderstorms were already in progress over LA / MS.  The following is the most recent U.S. surface map.  You’ll note the setup over the Gulf coast currently and for tomorrow:
noaad1
noaad2

ECMWF AND GFS 5 DAY TOTAL PRECIPITATION
ecmwf-deterministic-alms-total_precip_inch-6616000
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WPC 5 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
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EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALERT ISSUED (linked to discussion)
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Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link above, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
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RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
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You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-01-25 15:48:38

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