Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational. This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a MARGINAL risk of strong to severe thunderstorms in the current outlook: FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WESTERN LOUISIANA…
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana.
SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook)
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, and NAM model, information derived from forecast indices indicate the most likely threat could be damaging wind gusts given the forecast of a 50 – 55 kts of deep layer shear, strong / veering winds, and 60 – 70 kt mid level jet. Small hail may also be possible. Analysis of various indices maps tend to indicate severe weather may be isolated to the area shown by the tornado probability outline, and the SREF map, using the shaded areas. CAPE was modest, and mid level lapse rates area week, implying weak to marginal instability The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning and pertain to the MARGINAL risk area. Indices meanings can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 250 – 750 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 250 – 1000 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 750 – 1000 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 200 – 300 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 200 – 300 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 – 200 m2/s2
L. I.: -1 to -2
STP: 1 – 3
SCP: 1 – 4
EFF. SHEAR: 40 – 50 kts
0 -6 km SHEAR: 50 – 55 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.0 – 6.5C
DEWPOINT: 59F – 70F
EHI: 0.5 – 1.0
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 48 – 50C
K INDEX: 32 – 38
STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model. Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:
NAM SCP FORECAST (12:00 NOON 23 JAN. – 6:00 P.M. 23 JAN.)
NAM STP FORECAST (12:00 NOON 23 JAN. – 6:00 P.M. 23 JAN.)
SPC SREF MODEL INDICATING PROBABILITY OF STP >1
Excessive rainfall is in the forecast as well. Based on analysis of the 500 mb and 200 mb pattern, the setup will allow for development of frontal waves with the accompanying frontal boundary, along with shortwaves progressing along the 500 mb trough. The combination of these 2 features will allow for enough moisture to flow north from the GOMEX, along with warm air advection and enough lift to provide the ingredients for the heavy rainfall. This trough is going to be slow moving in nature, which will allow for these “frontal waves” and shortwave troughs to be numerous, and passing over the forecast area through at least mid week. Later today, closer to the cost, weak low pressure is forecast to develop, which will enhance rainfall. Some rainfall totals could exceed “4 – 5” inches total by the end of the period in isolated locations. At the time of analysis, rain was already in progress over the eastern Texas area. The following is the most recent U.S. surface map. You’ll note the setup over south Texas:
ECMWF AND GFS 5 DAY TOTAL PRECIPITATION
WPC 5 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALERT ISSUED (linked to discussion)
Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches. You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics. I have provided the SPC homepage link above, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
THE WEATHER PREDICTION
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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