April 11, 2021

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MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 03, 2021…8:25 EST

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  Without these sites, I’m pretty much left in the dark.  The F5 Data maps I post as well for severe weather, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), are also out of pocket to me. Please keep in mind, even when the hurricane season ends, I have to keep up on these site subscriptions for severe weather and winter weather. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the information I use in my forecasts.
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

This severe weather update is not going to seem as usual.  My F5 DATA Severe Weather software is not working again.  This evenings maps of the GFS and NAM-WRF initialized at 6 p.m., for 03/01/2021…MONDAY!. So, I have no accurate info from the F5 Data.  The maps I will be using will show various severe weather indices outlines.

The SPC has designated a MARGINAL risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE…WESTERN OK…

…SPC SUMMARY…
A few thunderstorms may be capable of large hail over parts the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma on Thursday during the late afternoon and early evening.

Based on analysis of the current SPC DAY 2 Outlook, surface dewpoints will not be too high, ranging from 45 – 50F.  However, being located under the mentioned 700 – 500 mb lapse rates of 8 – 9 deg C/km, this lapse rate will aid in atmospheric instability.  The standard lapse rate at this level runs approx. 5.5 – 6.0 deg C/km.  This, combined with effective shear of 25 – 35 kts, Surface based and Most Unstable CAPE values of 500 j/kg, and a lifted index of -1 to -4, could produce enough updraft/lift to cause some large hail over the outlined outlook area.  I only posted the current outlook, and the hail threat, as the wind threat is less than 5%, and the tornado threat was less than 2%.  Various tornado indices/parameters did not show up in this evenings analysis, utilizing the SPC SREF model.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)


The following maps show outlines of the various indices, and are valid for around 5:00 – 6:00 p.m. CST.  You’ll note most of the outlines pretty much match up with the DAY 2 Outlook outline.  These outlines indicate where the best probability for the severe weather/hail event to occur.  However, as discussed last night, these parameters may change somewhat between now, and tomorrow mornings model runs.  Please refer to the SPC homepage map by clicking it for updated outlook information and maps.  The following link will explain some of the indices:
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices
SPC SREF SURFACE BASED CAPE

MOST UNSTABLE CAPE

CRAVEN BROOKS SEVERE INDEX

SURFACE LIFTED INDEX
SPC HOMEPAGE (CLICK MAP)

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (LINKED)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (LINKED)

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)

Use the following link to see your area forecast.  Once on the site, type in your zip code in the green box:
https://www.weather.gov/iwx/fallfrostinfo
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)


You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2021-03-04 01:25:33

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