MAJOR HURRICANE LEE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 12, 2023…11:30 A.M. EDT

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          13
HURRICANES:                 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.

Hurricane LEE  a remains a Category 3 hurricane.  As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on LEE:
11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 12
Location: 24.3°N 65.9°W
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 HURRICANE LEE LOOP IMAGERY



LEE continues to move slowly toward the WNW.  Based on my analysis of the current and forecast steering pattern, LEE should continue this motion through today.  As the ridge begins to shift eastward, LEE should begin making the turn toward the north, feeling the influence of the current trof in place.  The actual track will depend on whether LEE’s forward speed remains very slow, or if an increase in forward speed occurs.  The slower the forward speed, the better the chances are that LEE will be more left of the forecast track and guidance, as he will miss the current trof, (although the current trof will lead to the turn north), and be drawn in by the approaching trof.  A faster forward motion, and he will most likely follow the current model guidance.  Again, the various models indicate the different scenarios:




12Z TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE


Given that modeling is spread, and the ECMWF and the ensemble had shifted left on the 00Z run, I agree pretty much with the guidance package and NHC forecast track, however until update runs are available, I am a little left on forecast track.
NHC FORECAST TRACK

Based on this, residents of the New England/NE portion of the U. S. may feel more of an effect from LEE than previously thought, and should monitor the progress of this storm.  From the NHC 11:00 a.m. discussion:
The latest NHC track was a compromise between the 6z GEFS and ECMWF ensembles in the days 4/5 time frame, as it is still too early to know if any leftward bend will occur as Lee approaches North America.

Analysis of the satellite of the satellite loop imagery did indicate concentric eyewalls, and it appears LEE may have just completed an EWRC.  Not much has changed as far as wind shear and the upper level outflow pattern.  Recent info from CIMSS still indicates moderate shear of about 15 – 20 knots over LEE, however the robust upper level outflow pattern is holding an effect of this shear in check:
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS


Based on the OHC map from CIMSS, LEE will be leaving the higher OHC, and will incur upwelling form previous storms.  In addition, the models are still showing the radial shear pattern over LEE for the next 96 hours, and are currently indicating this at the moment, even though it does not match the satellite derived product.  Given this, my experience tells me to go with, based on forecast shear graphs and the combination of things, shear may remain as a constant over the next 48 hours, however the upper level outflow is forecast to remain very favorable up to 48 hours.  Based on this, LEE should maintain his intensity up to around that point.  Quickly after, the outflow pattern dissipates, and LEE hits the much colder water.  I do not believe any re-intensification will occur, based on this, and any other possible EWRC.  With that said, I agree with the current NHC intensity forecast:
INIT 12/1500Z 24.3N 65.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 24.8N 66.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 25.9N 67.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 27.4N 67.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 29.4N 68.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 31.6N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 34.3N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 40.7N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 45.3N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NHC GRAPHICS PAGE
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/203849.shtml?3-daynl
ECMWF AND WAVEWATCH 3 WAVE HEIGHTS AND DIRECTION FORECAST




SURFACE WINDS FORECAST



I will continue to monitor the progress of LEE for any significant changes that may occur to the forecast conditions, and will issued local products if and when they are issued by the NHC.