MAJOR HURRICANE LEE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 11, 2023…12:10 P.M. EDT

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:          13
HURRICANES:                 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.

Hurricane LEE has once again become a Category 3 hurricane.  As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on LEE:
11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 11
Location: 23.5°N 63.5°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 948 mb / 27.99 in
Max sustained: 120 mph
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 HURRICANE LEE LOOP IMAGERY

LEE is currently moving toward the NW by the same basic setup.  Based on forecast steering analysis, given any slight fluctuations in intensity, I expect LEE to continue on a WNW to NW motion during the next couple of days.  The ridge is forecast to move eastward, and with the approaching trough, LEE should make the turn to the north.  Based on analysis of forecast 500 mb maps, and the tight cluster of the dynamic and consensus models, I agree with the NHC forecast track up to 120 hours (Sat.).
NHC FORECAST TRACK

Now, I know you’ve heard me keep insisting on a possible slight shift left in track.  This appears to have become more of a possibility, as all of the global modeling indicates by the 500 mb anomaly pattern forecast, that the trof currently in place lifts out a little more quickly.  The trof DOES catch LEE, however moves out,  leaving LEE behind.  With the lack of substantial ridging east and SE of LEE, there will be a lack of the SWLY return flow on the western side of the ridge if one existed, as the second trof approaches LEE.  This setup would have the tendency to draw LEE closer to the weakness of the approaching trof.  This is now seen in every model, with a noted shift left in guidance.  I’ll be posting the track guidance from 12Z and 06Z for comparison.
GLOBAL MODELS 500 MB ANOMALY FORECAST



NEW MAP FROM SPIRE WEATHER

You’ll note the weaker anomalies in the Atlantic, with the flow being basically SE to NW, and ridging directly north of LEE.  This would drive him toward the trof.

06Z ATCF GUIDANCE

12Z GUIDANCE

Based on this, residents of the New England/NE portion of the U. S. may feel more of an effect from LEE than previously thought, and should monitor the progress of this storm.

LEE remains a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.  Although recent data from CIMSS still indicates some moderate shear over LEE, the upper level outflow is well established and strong enough to over come the effects of the shear.


Analysis of global models still indicate by all, that the shear forecast is calling for a radial pattern to be over LEE for the next 72 – 96 hours.  However, they also indicated on initialization that this radial pattern was already in place over LEE.  So, who is correct?  Based on analysis of forecast graphs from the GFS, HMON, and HWRF, and SHIPS diagnostics, shear could remain at the same level, and even reduce for a breif period.  By 96 to 120 hours, wind shear is forecast to increase again by these forecast graphs, and with LEE moving over cooler waters by that time in the period, slow weakening should begin.  Even with the forecast of probable increasing shear, the forecast 200 mb outflow pattern is supposed to remain in place up to 96 hours.  So, LEE could maintain current strength for today, and begin some slow intensification by tomorrow, as the outflow pattern continues to offset the shear.  Based on this analysis, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast at the moment.
INIT 11/1500Z 23.5N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 23.9N 64.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 24.4N 65.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 24.9N 66.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 25.7N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 27.0N 67.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 28.8N 68.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 33.1N 67.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 38.9N 67.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
NOAA reconnaissance aircraft did find concentric eyewalls on this update.  Any EWRC and intermittent ingestion of dry air could cause intensity to fluctuate over the next few days.  However, I am not expecting any big deviation from the forecast.

NHC GRAPHICS PAGE
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/203849.shtml?3-daynl
ECMWF AND WAVEWATCH 3 WAVE HEIGHTS AND DIRECTION FORECAST


I will continue to monitor the progress of LEE for any significant changes that may occur to the forecast conditions, and will issued local products if and when they are issued by the NHC

The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com