January 21, 2021

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

MAJOR HURRICANE ETA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 02, 2020…8:30 P.M. EST

6 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 28
HURRICANES: 12
MAJOR HURRICANES: 5

U.S. LANDFALLS: 11
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
ETA was upgraded to a hurricane, and unfortunately, due to the very favorable conditions that came to fruition, the hurricane has been undergoing rapid intensification most of the day.  ETA is now a CAT 4 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph based on the 7:00 p.m. EST intermediate advisory.  Satellite loop imagery shows a very compact, well defined CDO and a small eye:
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

Based on what I had analyzed last night, I stated ETA should become a major hurricane, based on the premise of shear remaining light, high OHC, and the forecast of improving upper level outflow.  This did come to fruition, and I believe NHC had the max wind forecast at 120 mph.  However, the hurricane has slowed below what was forecast much earlier.  Based on this, and the almost perfect outflow pattern for most of the day,  which was under forecast by the global models last night,  ETA rapidly intensified to a category 4 hurricane with now maximum winds of 150 mph.  Based on the most updated discussion from the NHC, ETA continues the period of R.I.  From the 4:00 p.m. to the 7:00 p.m. update, the central pressure has dropped 14 mb, from 948 mb to 934 mb.  Based on this pressure drop, and the premise of favorable conditions remaining intact until landfall, I would not be surprised to see ETA attain category 5 status seeing the hurricane has about 5 hours left over water, which in it’s current state is only shy by 7 mph sustained.  This hurricane will bring catastrophic conditions to Nicaragua.

From the NHC 4:00 P.M. discussion:
As mentioned in previous advisories over the past 24 hours, the environment ahead of Eta is forecast to remain quite favorable with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions should allow for additional strengthening, however a difficult-to-predict eyewall replacement cycle could begin at any time which could cause Eta’s intensity to begin to level off. Since there are no signs of an eyewall replacement yet, the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for continued rapid strengthening for another 6 to 12 hours, and it is again at the upper-end of the guidance envelope.

The following is the upper level outflow pattern as of 2000Z (3:00 p.m.)
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS

ETA is moving WSW as was projected in my previous forecasts.  This motion should continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the west as the hurricane is affected by a mid level ridge.  As a trof approaches, what remains of the storm should turn toward the WNW Thursday, then north thereafter.  Based on forecast steering maps, and current track guidance, I agree with the NHC forecast track.
NHC FORECAST TRACK


ATCF 00Z TRACK GUIDANCE



IF you remember from my update last night, I did mention that guidance had continued to shift to an eventual NE motion.  It is unknown what shape the LLC will be in at that point, however both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement of re-development of the remnant, albeit differing on timing, as well as a forecast track.  I performed an analysis of forecast wind shear and upper level 200 mb winds, and as this, or if it approaches Cuba, upper level winds are forecast to be fairly favorable for development days 7 – 10 in the forecast period from 12Z today.  The scenario could change being the forecast for that is that far out.  However, the models have been consistent since yesterday afternoon.

The following forecast maps are the ECMWF and GFS MSLP Normalized Anomaly maps out to days 5, 7, and 10 respectively
ECMWF


GFS


ECMWF 240 HOUR WIND SHEAR FORECAST (UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE)

ECMWF 168 HOUR 200 MB FLOW

240 HOUR

I will continue to monitor ETA until landfall and the few days after, however since landfall should occur within the next 12 hours, I will not have an update tomorrow evening.  I will most likely update once the northward turn takes place and the remnant gets close to the water again.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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