July 16, 2024

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Late Saturday Night Look at the Tropics : The Alabama Weather Blog

2 min read

The Atlantic Basin has suddenly come to life as if someone threw a switch.

Tropical depression six formed Saturday about 850 miles east of the northern Leewards. It is expected to recurve east of the islands and weaken to a remnant low by Monday. It is not expected to become Tropical Storm Emily (or any other tropical storm name for that matter).

Invest 90L is near the southern Windwards early this morning. It is given a high probability of becoming a tropical storm over the next 24-72 hours. It is also expected to turn sharply northward over the South Central Caribbean and perhaps impact Hispaniola by Tuesday into Wednesday. It could become a hurricane in the Atlantic north of the islands and will be edging west northwestward by the end of the week. Could we see an over the top high push it back westward into the U.S. East Coast. Stranger things have happened.

POTENTIAL GULF SYSTEM: An area of disturbed weather is passing through the Florida Straits between Cuba and the Bahamas and Keys today and will reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and then the western Gulf of Mexico by about Tuesday or so. The latest model guidance and their ensemble members continues to point towards some development at the very last minute as its moving onshore along the middle or lower Texas coast by late Tuesday. We will have to watch this system as it comes ashore along the Texas coast later in the week and a quick spin up into a tropical storm is possible. The reason for this looks to be the combination of favorable environmental conditions and extremely warm Gulf of Mexico waters.

The last system being tracked by the NHC is in the far eastern Atlantic near the west coast of Africa. The experts at NHC have assigned a 30% chance of development during the next 7 days. But it is expected to turn northward and recurve without being an issue.

Category: Alabama’s Weather, ALL POSTS, Tropical

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site’s official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site’s severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

Bill Murray

2023-08-20 03:25:19

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