July 16, 2024

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INVEST 98L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 16, 2023…10:25 A.M. EST

6 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          19
HURRICANES:                 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

Satellite loop imagery indicates the low that was in the NW GOMEX 2 days ago, is now moving to south.  Satellite imagery shows a well defined LLC with no convection.  Based on analysis of the models, this appears to split, forming a secondary low off of Florida’s east coast which is forecast to move NEWD.  This low could still have a brief moment of causing minimal Tropical Storm force winds over a small portion of the GOMEX.  As the secondary low develops off the east coast, the possibility of these same winds could occur along portions of the Florida east coast.  This low is forecast to move quickly toward the NE.

INVEST 98L has been designated in the south central Caribbean.  As of the 7:00 EST ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 98L:
7:00 AM EST Thu Nov 16
Location: 14.0°N 81.5°W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb / 29.68 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
Satellite loop imagery indicates a LLC has become a little better defined and a little more organized since yesterday mornings analysis.  There have been some slight changes to the conditions that were forecast for today, in that conditions have become more favorable for slow development.  Analysis of the CIMSS wind shear map indicated a radial shear pattern very close to the “center”, and what appears to be a developing upper level outflow pattern.  Mid level shear was less than 15 kts.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAP
INVEST.98L.SHEAR
INVEST.98L.200MB
Both the ECMWF and GFS indicated ample moisture at the surface and up to the mid level, based on TPW analysis and relative humidity values at 500 mb.  Analysis of forecast wind shear, combined with the TPW and RH values forecast from both models, shows favorable conditions for INVEST 98L during the next 18 hours.  Thereafter, the SHIPS diagnostic report indicates wind shear should increase briefly to between 20 – 25 kts, then weaken again.  IF this information proves correct, then INVEST 98L could now have a better chance at becoming a tropical depression.  IF mid level shear remains low and with the forecast of a strong divergent pattern due to the system being under the influence of the right rear entrance region of a jetstreak, the system may be able to overcome the increase in wind shear.  Current intensity guidance brings 98L to tropical storm force in about 36 hours, with a peak at 72 hours ( 50-60 mph).  At this particular time, I feel guidance is a little too quick,  however later in the period, this could acquire tropical storm force winds.  However, I don’t believe it will remain tropical, as based on the forecast shear pattern from the ECMWF and GFS, vice the SHIPS diagnostic report, between 48 – 72 hours, the system, along with the developing low north of the area, seem to form one large low pressure area, and based on analysis of the 500 mb forecast, should come under the influence of a mid level trough, being caught in the trough axis.  This would indicate baroclinicity, and the system would be considered post tropical.

Based on MSLP Anomaly forecasts and current limited track guidance, this system should move fairly steady toward the NE during the next 96 hours.  Information from the NHC:
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the Greater Antilles through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.

The NHC has increased the probability of cyclone formation to MEDIUM (60%).
GOMEX AND INVEST 98L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
GOMEX
CARIBBEAN
CARIBBEAN(2)NHC 7 DAY GTWO


I will continue to monitor the situation over the next 48 hours for any significant changes to forecast conditions.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-mslp_norm_anom-1700092800-1700092800-1700524800-40.THIS
gfs-deterministic-exatl-mslp_norm_anom-1700114400-1700114400-1700546400-40.THIS
SURFACE WIND FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-wnd10m_stream_mph-1700114400-1700114400-1700287200-40.this
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-wnd10m_stream_mph-1700114400-1700114400-1700287200-40.this
PROJECTED 5 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-total_precip_inch-0524800.this
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-total_precip_inch-0546400.this
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1700147785
The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas.RADR.US
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
canvas
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST



palmharborforecastcenter

2023-11-16 15:18:36

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