ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided. Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion. When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented. After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly. This will have an effect on my actual forecast. Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org
The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES : 5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3 – 4
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
NAMED STORMS: 19
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season. As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands. Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them. Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.
The NHC has increased the probability of cyclone formation to HIGH (70%) on newly designated INVEST 97 L in the E. Caribbean:
NHC 7 DAY GTWO
As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT ATCF BTK product (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast system;Best TracK), the following was available on INVEST 97L:
8:00 AM AST Tue Oct 31
Location: 15.9°N 67.7°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77 in
Max sustained: 30 mph
INVEST 97L is displaying some counterclockwise rotation, and what appears to be an overshooting cloud top coming up from the center in recent satellite loop imagery. The system remains disorganized however due to about 15 – 20 kts of wind shear currently over the system. Analysis of mid level shear indicate mid level shear is currently under 15 kts. Analysis of 850 and 500 mb vorticity maps indicated INVEST 97L was not vertically stacked.
INVEST 97L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
Based on analysis of upper level winds, it looks as though an outflow pattern may be trying to develop, and the presence of a south quadrant outflow channel. Since mid level shear is pretty much negligible, this could aid in a slow development process. Based on analysis of wind shear forecast maps from the ECMWF and GFS global models 06Z run, and SHIPS diagnostic report from 12Z, wind shear is forecast to slowly subside to below 20 kts during the next 36 hours, and be most favorable at around 90 – 96 hours in the forecast period, with shear becoming a radial pattern very near or over the center of INVEST 97L. Analysis of the 200 mb streamline pattern, as well as the CHI200 anomaly forecast indicates at the same time, the upper pattern becomes more favorable by indicating a divergent pattern, with the GFS showing more favorable conditions than the ECMWF. The system will be under the influence of the Right Rear Entrance region of the jet. The ECMWF is still indicating little or no development, and the GFS currently indicating a 1004 mb low by 96 hours. Both models indicate favorable surface and mid level moisture values throughout the period. Based on the forecast trends, along with current intensity guidance, and depending on accuracy, I believe INVEST 97L may continue to gradually and slowly become better organized, and a Tropical Depression could form within the next 48 – 72 hours, and possibly a Tropical Storm just prior to landfall over Nicaragua / Honduras. The ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability forecast indicates a 65% probability for development of a depression.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST
ECMWF AND GFS WIND SHEAR, AND 200 MB PATTERN FORECAST
INVEST 97L was moving slightly north of due west. Based on my analysis of various steering products, I expect a general west motion to continue during the next 72 hours, with a slight shift south in track thereafter. This is based on recent 500 mb geopotential height forecasts, and MSLP anomaly forecast maps, indicating enough elongated ridging north of the area with an orientation approximately NNE to SSW. Based on this analysis, I currently agree with the 12Z track guidance and the consensus model TVCA
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE
I will continue to monitor INVEST 97L for any significant changes to the forecast.
The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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