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INVEST 97L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 01, 2023…11:00 A.M. EDT

6 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          19
HURRICANES:                 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

The NHC has increased the probability of cyclone formation to MEDIUM (50%) on INVEST 97L in the Caribbean:
NHC 7 DAY GTWO

As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT ATCF BTK product (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast system;Best TracK), the following was available on INVEST 97L:
8:00 AM AST Wed Nov 01
Location: 15.6°N 72.8°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77 in
Max sustained: 30 mph

INVEST 97L remains poorly organized.  The system remains under 15 – 20 kts of wind shear.  Analysis of mid level shear indicated mid level shear is currently under 15 kts.  Recent satellite loop imagery seems to indicate that thunderstorms may be firing up west of the LLC, however it is unknown at the moment whether this process will sustain, or if this is just a temporary flareup.
INVEST 97L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
invest.97L.IR
invest.97L.VIS
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
invest.97L.shear
invest.97L.upper
PWAT
invest.97L.PWAT.
Based on analysis of upper level winds, the upper pattern has become less favorable since yesterday’s update.  Mid level shear remains below 15 kts.  Analysis of the PWAT (Precipitable WATer) product, surface moisture is fairly high, but it appears there is some slightly drier air near the center of the LLC in the mid level.  Based on analysis of wind shear forecast maps from the ECMWF and GFS global models 06Z run, and SHIPS diagnostic report from 12Z, wind shear is forecast to subside to below 15 kts during the next 12-24 hours, and being at the optimal potential at around 48 hours, along with a more favorable 200 mb pattern (although both still somewhat marginal) in the forecast period from 06Z, with shear becoming a radial pattern very near or over the center of INVEST 97L.  Analysis of the CHI200 anomaly forecast indicates at the same time, the upper pattern becomes a little more favorable by indicating a weak to moderate divergent pattern. Both models still indicate an improvement in surface to mid level moisture content, with the GFS showing more favorable conditions than the ECMWF.  This occurs right near the 48 – 54 hour period in the forecast from 06Z (2:00 a.m. EDT) this morning  The ECMWF is still indicating little or no development, and the GFS currently indicating a weak 1003 mb system right before it crosses the coast of Nicaragua .  Though the probability for development has decreased slightly, it is still possible a tropical depression could develop during the next 36 to 48 hours, however this could only occur IF the models are correct and accurate in the forecasting of future conditions analyzed. The ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability forecast indicates a 60% probability for development of a depression. IF the conditions improve as indicated, there may still be a slim probability for a tropical storm to occur just prior to, or right at landfall.  Current intensity guidance has not backed down, and has been consistent since 97L was designated.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_72
12Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
aal97_2023110112_intensity_early

ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST


ECMWF AND GFS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-chi200_anom-8991200
gfs-deterministic-exatl-chi200_anom-8991200
INVEST 97L was moving toward the west this morning.  Based on my analysis of various steering products, there has been no change to the forecast steering pattern.  I expect a general west motion to continue for most of today, with a WSW track beginning by sometime tomorrow, and maintaining this track up until landfall. This is based on recent 500 mb geopotential height forecasts, and MSLP anomaly forecast maps, and 500 mb anomaly forecast maps, indicating enough elongated ridging north of the area with an orientation approximately NNE to SSW.  Based on this analysis, I currently agree with the 12Z track guidance and the consensus model TVCA
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE
aal97_2023110112_track_early
I will continue to monitor INVEST 97L for any significant changes to the forecast, and will update again if and when it becomes fairly organized.

The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas.RADR.US
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
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You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST



palmharborforecastcenter

2023-11-01 14:56:59

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