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INVEST 97L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 09, 2022…8:40 P. M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Although I do not prefer to change forecast totals, based on revised information, I may be adjusting my storm totals in the near future

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:       4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

As of the 18Z (2:00 p. m. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 97L:
2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 9
Location: 12.0°N 29.2°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in
Max sustained: 30 mph

Recent satellite loop imagery indicates 97L is less consolidated than it was yesterday evening.  Convection remains in small areas around the “center” of the system, which you’ll make out in the SWIR loop.  I have circled the center in the still image.    
WEATHERNERDS INVEST 97L IR AND SWIR SATELLITE LOOP
37026632ir
37026632sw

SWIR STILL IMAGE
GOES16_1km_swir_202208092315_2.25_19.25_-45.25_-15.50_swir1_ltngge_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds

During analysis this evening, I noted  3 possibilities of why the satellite presentation has degraded
1.) INVEST 97L is no longer associated with a radial shear pattern.
2.) It appears 97L may be feeling effects of some slight dry air intrusion.
3.) Forward speed has been 20 mph, however has slowed as of this afternoon.

The NHC has lowered the development probability during the next 5 days to LOW (30%)The ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecast has lowered its expectations as well, indicating the best chance at development occurs from 24 – 72 hours in the forecast period from 12Z this morning.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_5d1
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_72
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_96
INVEST 97L is currently moving just north of due west, as of the latest ATCF BTK information, and analysis of the current layer mean steering indicates this motion.  Based on the current steering, and forecast steering layers forecast, INVEST 97L should continue on this motion for the next 72 hours.  Thereafter, the majority of track guidance models at the moment show closer to a NW motion, in which however forecast steering pretty much indicates this future motion.
ATCF 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE
aal97_2022080918_track_early
Maximum sustained winds associated with INVEST 97L, were reported to be 30 mph, based on the ATCF BTK report.  Right now, the majority of intensity guidance models bring INVEST 97L to a strong tropical storm, to a CAT 1 hurricane.  Based on my analysis of the forecast for wind shear, relative humidity values (surface to mid level), and PWAT values, I still believe the current intensity guidance is overdone.
18Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
aal97_2022080918_intensity_early
There isn’t much change in the models from last night regarding shear, and humidity levels.  The ECMWF and GFS still indicate decent RH levels at the moment, however it still appears dry air will intrude from the west in a few days (96 hours).  Albeit not in an overpowering manner, but enough to slow the chance for development.  Both models still try to indicate somewhat of a radial shear pattern, however this feature no longer exists this evening.  The next 24 – 48 hours will tell if the models are correct in developing another weak radial pattern.  After 72 hours however, the SHIPS diagnostic report increases shear above 15 knots:

SHIPS DIAGNOSTIC REPORT
Screenshot 2022-08-09 at 19-13-16 https __hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu
Upper level outflow at 200 mb is forecast to develop after 96 hours, however what may become of the wave, will be west of the area.  As stated in the previous paragraph, it appears dry air may be impinging on the system.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR
97L.SHEAR
CIMSS DRY AIR MAP
97L.dry
The GFS once again is the only model indicating development of 97L.  Based on what I am seeing in analysis of the various forecast parameters, IF 97L slows its forward speed, and fight off any dry air, and IF the shear pattern becomes more favorable, there could still be some gradual development, POSSIBLY a depression.  However, based on the analyzed forecast parameters, I am doubtful at this time, that 97L attains tropical storm status.

I will continue to monitor everything for any significant changes over the tropics, and will update when able.

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-08-10 00:34:49

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