December 4, 2022

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INVEST 97L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 08, 2022…8:30 P. M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good evening everyone!

I wanted to make known again, I will be on vacation during the “peak” of the hurricane season (AUG. 29 – SEP 09), on an Alaskan cruise.  I will not have the capability to update during that time.  Please refer to the NHC.  You’ll note various links underneath the header/banner on the page such as the National Hurricane Center, Active Watches and Warnings NWS Hazard and Warnings Display, Satellite and Radar Page (etc.)  These are linked to their respective sites and should provide you with ample information.

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The tropical wave that recently exited the African west coast, has now been designated INVEST 97L.
As of the 18Z (2:00 p. m. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 97L:
2:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 8
Location: 11.7°N 22.7°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in
Max sustained: 30 mph

Recent satellite loop imagery indicates not much change in organization, however convection seems to have become more consolidated, with a slight increase in convection.
WEATHERNERDS INVEST 97L IR AND SWIR SATELLITE LOOP
76009171IR
76009171SWIR
The NHC maintains a MEDIUM (40%) probability for cyclone development during the next 5 days:
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_5d1
INVEST 97L is currently moving just north of due west, or close to WNW as of the latest ATCF BTK information, and analysis of the current layer mean steering indicates this motion.  Based on the current steering, and forecast steering layers forecast, INVEST 97L should continue on this motion for the next 72 hours.  Thereafter, the majority of track guidance models at the moment show closer to a NW motion, however base on the analysis of forecast steering, I believe at the moment the more WNW motion may continue, and may follow the southern portion of the NHC projected hatched outline.  This may have to be revisited over the next couple of days, as this information is based pretty much on initialization of the system.  At the moment, I prefer the TVCA model in the track guidance forecast.
ATCF 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE
aal97_2022080818_track_early
Maximum sustained winds associated with INVEST 97L, were reported to be 30 mph, based on the ATCF BTK report.  Right now, the majority of intensity guidance models bring INVEST 97L to a strong tropical storm, to a CAT 1 hurricane.  Given that this is again, based on initialization of the system which is currently disorganized, I believe the intensity guidance is overdone at the moment.
CURRENT FORECAST INTENSITY GUIDANCE
aal97_2022080818_intensity_early
Based on analysis of the ECMWF and GFS wind shear forecast maps, the radial shear pattern seen in the CIMSS wind shear map, diminishes over the next 72 hours, however the pattern once again is forecast to become radial by 96 – 120 hours out in the forecast period.  Shortly thereafter, the shear pattern becomes zonal, to which upper level support would be weak.   Analysis of the recent SHIPS diagnostic report is forecasting wind shear to remain below 15 kts, indicating mostly single digit wind shear values, up to 144 hours in the forecast period.  While these values are extremely favorable for intensification, again, the shear pattern becomes zonal.  Analysis of the RH (Relative Humidity) values, and PWAT (Precipitable WATer) values tend to indicate INVEST 97L begins to ingest mid level dry air by the weekend.  This is why I feel at the moment that the intensity guidance is a bit overdone.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP
97L.SHEAR
ECMWF AND GFS 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-rh500-0348800
gfs-deterministic-exatl-rh500-0392000
Based on these factors, I feel gradual development is in order, and we may see a tropical depression form during the next 72 – 84 hours, prior to conditions become less favorable fore development.  The ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecast indicates a 65% probability of a tropical depression during the next 24 – 72 hours, and then lowers the probability in the 48 – 96 time period.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_72

eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_96
I will continue to monitor everything for any significant changes over the tropics, and will update when able.

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIS

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-08-09 00:28:35

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