ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided. Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion. When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented. After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly. This will have an effect on my actual forecast. Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org
The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES : 5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3 – 4
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
NAMED STORMS: 19
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season. As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands. Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them. Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.
I wanted to touch briefly on development, or lack there of on INVEST 97L. I’ve been researching and giving a lot of thought on it, and the only thing apparent to me is, the forecast data from the global models on improving conditions for the disturbance appear to have been forecast a little too quick. In other words, the modeling indicated conditions that were more favorable for development while the system was about 24 hours or so from landfall. What appears to have happened based on the NOV. 4 NHC outlook, and satellite imagery, a center reformation occurred, and conditions did not become more favorable, until just as the center of the system was approaching the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. From the NHC:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Western Caribbean Sea (AL97): Surface observations and overnight satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of low pressure that we have been monitoring during the past few days over the western Caribbean has reformed about 100 miles east of the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. Showers and thunderstorms have increased associated with the low pressure system, and surface pressures have fallen during the past several hours. Some gradual development of this system is possible before it moves inland over Central America tonight or Sunday. The following link shows INVEST 97L a little better organized around that time in the 06UTC time stamp. You’ll have to slow the animation:
Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days. The GFS appears to be playing medium to long range games however, in developing a system in the Caribbean in about 9 – 10 days.
I have noticed in some weather groups, the mention of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event is being kicked about. Currently, in the extended range (30 days+), the ECMWF ensemble seems to indicate a possibility of this occurring with a sudden rise in 10 mb stratospheric temperatures over the North Pole the week of Dec. 11, with a small anomalous area of >10C for the mean.
The GEFS extended ensemble indicates warming, however not centered over the North Pole. 10mb pressure anomalies are noted to be lower over the pole during the same time. In order for the Polar Vortex to be affected and head southward, there has to be the presence of a NEGATIVE AO (Arctic Oscillation). This would be indicated by higher pressure anomalies over the polar region, instead of lower anomalies as indicated by the GEFS extended model. The higher pressure anomalies weaken the westerlies in the upper atmosphere (stratosphere), allowing for Arctic air to plunge south.
GEFS 10 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES DEC 10, 2023
GEFS 10 MB PRESSURE ANOMALIES
NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION
Surface temperature anomalies forecast from both the ECMWF EPS and GEFS did not indicate the presence of Polar or Arctic air by that time. Bear in mind, this a very long way out for accuracy, and should be considered low confidence at the moment. I’ll monitor this, and will be more interested in the possibility once the forecast period is 10 days out.
ECMWF EPS AND GEFS SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: email@example.com
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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