INVEST 96L / CARIBBEAN AOI FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 30, 2023…9:45 A.M. EDT

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          19
HURRICANES:                 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

The NHC has marked two areas to watch in the 7 day GTWO:
NHC 7 DAY GTWO



The first area near the Bahamas is still disorganized, with an ill defined LLC and is still under 30 kts of shear, and being affected by dry air.  Based on analysis of both the ECMWF and GFS models, wind shear is forecast to increase, and dry air is forecast to continue being ingested by the system.  Honestly, I don’t even know why the NHC is interested in this.  Based on my analysis, I do not believe further development will take place, unless conditions improve somehow.  Both models do indicate a weak surface low to develop, however I don’t see anything significant developing.
INVEST 96L


ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST


The second area in the Caribbean Sea may stand a better chance at some slow development.  At the moment, based on current TPW values seen in the animation, there appears to be ample moisture over the area at the location of the area being monitored.
CIMSS TPW ANIMATION

CARIBBEAN AOI (Area Of Interest)


Some slight wind shear is over the area out of the north at the moment at around 15 – 20 kts.  Based on my analysis of both the ECMWF and GFS forecast maps, conditions are forecast to improve at around 96 hours out in the forecast period, with both indicating a decrease in shear with a radial pattern developing over the supposed low that forms, improved moisture, and the 200 mb pattern becoming more favorable in about 5 days from now.  The ECMWF indicates lowering surface pressures and begins to develop a low just as the area gets close to Honduras and Nicaragua, and the GFS develops the area at about 96 hours out, showing a little more favorable pattern than the ECMWF.  Based on analysis of forecast conditions at the moment, I do believe some gradual, slow development should occur.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST


ECMWF AND GFS PWAT, WIND SHEAR, AND 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST

The ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecast currently indicates a 70% probability of a tropical depression developing and 10% probability of a tropical storm:


The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)

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