August 19, 2022

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INVEST 95L / PTC TWO FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 29, 2022…8:05 P. M. EDT

8 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The NHC has maintained a HIGH (90%) probability of cyclone formation with PTC TWO, and a MEDIUM (40%) probability with INVEST 95L in the GOMEX, and increased the probability of the tropical wave near 45.0W to 30% during the next 5 days.
NHC GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_2d0
I am going to begin closer to home this evening with INVEST 95L.  As of the 2:00 p. m. ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 95L in the NW GOMEX:
2:00 PM EDT Wed Jun 29
Location: 25.8°N 95.4°W
Moving: WSW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1014 mb / 29.94 in
Max sustained: 35 mph

The initial motion was reported as WSW as this drifts slowly tonight and into the morning, and should begin to move more toward the WNW to NW shortly thereafter.  Based on forecast steering and model guidance, this disturbance should move over the Texas coast in about 24 hours.

MODEL GUIDANCE
aal95_2022062918_track_early

Max. sustained winds were reported at 35 mph.  Analysis of current wind shear indicates shear has relaxed from the 25 kts last night, to 15 – 20 this evening.  This is allowing for the convection to be somewhat closer to the low level circulation.  Based on analysis of the wind field from the MTCSWA site, this doesn’t have a completely closed off center.  Current Satellite loop imagery still indicates a disorganized system with limited convective activity.  Visible satellite loop imagery still indicates the system is taking in some drier air by the presence of arc clouds, seen rushing out from the center and moving southwestward.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 GOMEX SATELLITE IR AND VIS LOOP IMAGERY
74227458
74227458vis
Based on my analysis of the wind shear forecast and SHIPS diagnostics, the shear pattern is forecast to improve somewhat, with shear values forecast to be on a favorable level.  Analysis this evening indicates surface moisture and relative humidity to be favorable up to 700 mb, with indications of a drier mid level.  This will be a hindering factor for development.  However these GOMEX systems have been known to flareup just prior to crossing the coast.  I am not expecting too much out of this, given the lack of organization, and forecast presence of drier mid level air.  However, given the lowering of shear and the very warm Gulf waters, the probability of this becoming a depression as it crosses the coast does exist.  The majority of the intensity guidance indicates a depression, with only 4 models indicating a weak tropical storm.  I don’t see a TS. right now, given the short time it will be over water.
Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days.
ECMWF GOMEX SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-6568800
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS RADAR LOOP
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The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO

As of the 8:00 p. m. NHC intermediate advisory, the following was available on PTC TWO:
8:00 PM AST Wed Jun 29
Location: 11.9°N 69.7°W
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in
Max sustained: 40 mph

Based on careful analysis of satellite loop imagery, the system hasn’t shown any real changes in organization this evening, and still appears somewhat elongated.  The system continues to move toward the west, at a forward speed of 21 mph.  Based on analysis of the current steering layer, this motion is due to the strong flow on the southern edge of the subtropical ridge.  Based on this, and analysis of forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 24 hours, before the forecast steering pattern allows for a slight shift south in track, but continuing due west.  This should allow for the system to exit into the EPAC in a few days.  Based on this, I concur with the NHC forecast track.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
45024482
45024482vis
Based on information in the NHC discussion, PTC TWO is still trying to close off a complete circulation.  Based on how close the center is to the South America coast, this may not occur until the center moves away from the coast, albeit the NHC indicates this could become a cyclone at any time.

Based on my analysis of current and forecast wind shear maps, the PTC is not under any shear to speak of, and the forecast calls for shear to remain low and in a favorable pattern.  Current intensity guidance now indicates only a tropical storm, vice hurricane prior to landfall.  This could very well be, given the proximity to land, and the fast forward speed.  Once this gets to open water and if it slows down, some steady strengthening may occur, prior to landfall.  We’ll have to see if there are any changes to the forecast pattern during the next 24 – 36 hours, that may indicate a bump to minimal CAT 1.  For the time being, I concur with the NHC intensity forecast, based on my analysis.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
aal02_2022062918_intensity_early
CURRENT WIND SHEAR
PTC.SHEAR
ECMWF SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-6547200
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 29/2100Z 11.6N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 30/0600Z 11.8N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH…TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 30/1800Z 12.0N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 11.7N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 11.4N 82.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 11.1N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
72H 02/1800Z 11.2N 87.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…OVER WATER
96H 03/1800Z 12.3N 92.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 13.5N 98.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

KEY MESSAGES FROM THE NHC
233233_key_messages_sm
233233_spanish_key_messages_sm
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES
233233
23323350KT
FROM THE NHC ADVISORY:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Meteorological Service of the Netherlands has discontinued the 
Tropical Storm Warning for Bonaire.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to
Santa Marta
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* North of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the
northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this
system.
Interests elsewhere along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua
and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce 
heavy rain across the ABC Islands to portions of northern Venezuela 
and northeast Colombia through Thursday morning, then across 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following storm total 
rainfall amounts are expected:
North-Central Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.
Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northern 
Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.
Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals 
around 10 inches. 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over the ABC Islands 
in the warning area for the next few hours.  Tropical storm 
conditions are expected in the warning area along the northwestern 
coast of Venezuela and along the coast of northeastern Colombia 
tonight and early Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
in Nicaragua late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch areas in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday afternoon or evening.

Residents within the HURRICANE WATCH area should be making preparations at this time.

I will continue to monitor both INVEST 95L and PTC TWO over the next 36 – 48 hours for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, I do not anticipate Tropical Storm Formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-06-30 00:06:30

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