November 27, 2022

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INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 28, 2022…8:15 P.M. EDT

5 min read

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11
TOTAL HURRICANES:       5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      2

U. S. LANDFALLS: 3

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Good evening everyone!

INVEST 95L has been designated in Caribbean Sea, just north of the S. American coast.  Satellite loop imagery indicates the INVEST is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, associated with an area of broad low pressure.  In my analysis of the satellite loop images, it is noted there are multiple vorticies associated with INVEST 95L.  Further analysis in my opinion would indicate the “center” of this may be a little further north than shown in the NHC GTWO and CIMSS tropical page.  The NHC has designated a HIGH (70%) probability for development during the next 5 days.  The recent ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecast has bumped up to around 85 – 90 percent during the next 72 hours.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
63366305
63366305vis
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO NHC)
two_atl_5d1
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_72
Based on the last ATCF BTK report, maximum winds with INVEST 95L were 25 mph.  The following information was available as of the 18Z ATCF report:
2:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 29
Location: 12.3°N 66.6°W
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in
Max sustained: 25 mph

Analysis this evening of the ECMWF and GFS global models indicates conditions are marginal at the moment, with an offset radial shear pattern allowing for about 15 – 20 kts of shear over the area in the 2100Z update, and a semi-conducive outflow pattern.  Conditions are forecast to become more conducive during the next 72 – 82 hours with an improving shear pattern, 200 mb streamline pattern, as well as SST’s of 29.0C in the  current projected path.  In this time frame, the shear forecast calls for a radial shear pattern over the system at that time, as well as a somewhat established upper level outflow pattern.  However, this is forecast to be short lived, and after 72 hours, shear is forecast to increase, with the radial pattern being offset south of the system, and the 200 mb streamline pattern being centered well east of the system.  In the same period, a reduction in 500 mb relative humidity values is called for.  Based on this analysis, and until we can clearly define the center on this, I have to agree with the current SHIPS (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme) of 95L becoming and remaining a Tropical Depression, or possibly attaining breif minimal Tropical Storm status.  Both the ECMWF and GFS dissipate this in the 4 – 5 day period in the forecast.  Again, since all the information analyzed this evening is initialization, the forecast is all going to depend on where the center is actually located, and the speed at which organization occurs.  The following are graphics from the ECMWF global model:
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-7250000

ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-7250000
Based on analysis of current steering layers winds, 95L is moving toward the WNW.  Based on forecast steering analysis, and current track guidance, I expect this WNW to NW track to continue during the next couple of days, before the system bends back toward the west.  Based on analysis of the ECMWF EPS / GEFS ensemble models, and TVCA consensus model, the system should then head toward Honduras/Nicaragua.  Once again, actual track will most likely shift, depending on where the center locates, and how well organized it becomes, or doesn’t.
18Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE
aal95_2022102818_track_early
ECMWF EPS AND GEFS GUIDANCE
AL95_2022102800_ECENS_0-120h_large
AL95_2022102812_GEFS_0-120h_large

The following link takes a little to load, however it’s an interactive radar map, but you can zoom in and click on the radar you wish to view:

RADAR PUBLIC ACCESSIBLE DATABASE
http://tropicalglobe.com/radar_database/

I will continue to monitor the area for ANY significant changes in the forecast parameter, and will try to update over the weekend.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-10-29 00:10:43

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