October 24, 2020

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

INVEST 94L / WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 18, 2020…7:05 P.M. EDT

6 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 25
HURRICANES: 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3

U.S. LANDFALLS: 10
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
Satellite imagery this evening shows the non tropical low approximately 600 miles SE of Bermuda, continuing to move toward the south.  Analysis of the current wind shear map from CIMSS indicates this low is currently undergoing around 20 – 25 kts of westerly shear, hence the LLC (circled in red) is exposed to the west of the limited convection.
GOES 16 INVEST 94L SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

The NHC has designated a HIGH (90%) probability of cyclone development during the next 5 days, and this low could become a sub-tropical depression or sub-tropical storm.  The NHC also shows the area where a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop, the one we’ve all been talking about for the past few days.  The probability has been lowered to 20% during the next 5 days.
NHC GTWO

Based on my analysis of forecast steering maps, and ATCF track guidance, INVEST 94L should continue to move slowly southward, and meander slowly during the next 36-48 hours.  By Wed., INVEST 94L should begin a motion toward the NNW.  Based on analysis of global models, the system eventually recurves into the westerlies.
ATCF 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE

Based on the current shear pattern, and expanded wind field with maximum winds being away and NW of the center, the characteristics of this are sub-tropical at the moment.  Based on the forecast wind shear pattern and 200 mb wind pattern, shear is forecast to relax in about 60 – 72 hours with a brief upper level anticyclone forecast to develop over the system, and somewhat of a northerly outflow pattern beginning around that time.  This COULD allow for INVEST 94L to try and transition to tropical. However given the current forecast size of the system, and the forecast wind field, this may remain subtropical out to around day 5, when thereafter, the wind field tightens briefly which could allow this to be classified as tropical, before transitioning back to sub-tropical or extratropical.  The current SHIPS report indicates this as a possibility, however until I see how this continues to develop, I feel development may be limited due to the forecast of mid level dry air intrusion at 700 – 500 mb level.
ECMWF AND GFS 200 MB FORECAST

ECMWF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST 850 MB

700 MB

500 MB

Global models still indicate a broad area of low pressure forecast to develop somewhere over the W. Caribbean Sea.  Analysis this evening of the global models indicates models are not showing much interest now, and do not appear to develop a closed low, but just show lowering of pressure anomalies.   Based on analysis of the current wind shear forecast from both the ECMWF and GFS, upper level winds are forecast to become favorable by sometime on Tuesday, with formation of an upper level anticyclone over the area.  You’ll also note in the 200 MB forecast maps from the ECMWF and GFS above, a favorable upper level outflow pattern is forecast over the W. Caribbean.  WHY the models are not developing this area is unknown to me at the moment, unless it begins to take in drier air from the central GOMEX.  The following forecast maps are posted to view the Caribbean Sea:
ECMWF

GFS


CMC

I will continue to monitor INVEST 94L and the W. Caribbean for any significant changes to the forecast, and will update accordingly.

An area of disturbed weather east of Florida is associated with a stationary front.  The area is under 40 – 45 knots of westerly shear, and upper level winds are forecast to remain non conducive for development.
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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