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INVEST 94L / FUTURE NOR’EASTER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 16, 2023…11:15 A.M. EDT

6 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          18
HURRICANES:                 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

INVEST 94L has become deteriorated from what we saw yesterday morning.  NHC states the LLC has become better defined, however looking at visible satellite loop imagery, this circulation appears broad in nature.  At 12Z, the following information was available on INVEST 94L from the ATCF BTK product:
8:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 16
Location: 9.5°N 38.0°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb / 29.88 in
Max sustained: 25 mph
Analysis of visible imagery also seemed to indicate that 94L may be situated in a  little more stable environment this morning, and the current instability chart compared to climatology tends to indicate the same.

Water vapor loop imagery indicates the system may be currently fighting dry air, as well as the recent PWAT analysis.
INVEST 94L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (IR, VIS, WATER VAPOR)
INVEST.94L.IR
INVEST.94L.VIS
INVEST.94L.wv
Based on analysis of both deep layer wind shear and mid level wind shear, values of both are low, with mid shear being only 0 – 5 knots.  The upper level wind pattern has taken a 180 degree turn from being somewhat radial yesterday, to being split zonally N and S, with the 850 – 200 mb shear pattern now being more zonal.  This is the only thing I can think of at the moment, other than the dry air and more stable environment, that has caused this system to fall apart.  This has led to a reduction in both surface convergence and upper divergence, and elongated vorticity.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL WINDS, AND VORTICITY
INVEST.94L.SHEAR
INVEST.94L.upper
INVEST.94L.vort
I have to say I feel the modeling did not handle their forecast conditions accurately, seeings how this mornings real time conditions show something different.  However, BOTH the ECMWF and GFS on the current run indicate pretty close to the same forecast conditions, calling for conditions to improve in about 48 hours with a slight radial shear pattern centering over the system, and improvement in the upper level pattern with a somewhat favorable outflow, some increase in mid level relative humidity, and an increase in precipitable water.  Analysis of the CHI200 anomalies forecast still indicates a divergent upper pattern developing  This could allow for some better organization and development, however at this stage, I feel any development is going to be slow to occur.  This system is going to have to somehow overcome the lack of instability and the dry air surrounding it.
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-shear_850v200-7587200
ECMWF 200 MB PATTERN
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-z200_speed-7587200
ECMWF 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-rh500-7587200
ECMWF PWAT
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-pwat-7587200
ECMWF CHI200 ANOMALIES
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-chi200_anom-7608800
Based on my analysis, should 94L survive the current environment, I believe some organization could begin within 48 hours, and development of a depression could occur within 60 – 72 hours from 12Z this morning.  This is going to depend on whether or not the models are handling forecast conditions accurately or not.  Current intensity guidance is calling for a Tropical Storm within the next 36 – 48 hours.  Currently, I don’t see this happening, unless conditions change quickly.

INVEST 94L was moving just north of due west.  Based on current and forecast steering layers, and surface map animations, I expect this motion to continue for about the next 36 – 48 hours.  Thereafter, I expect more of a WNW motion and then NW motion by 72 hours, as the system approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge.  This will depend mainly on the future strength of the system.  Right now, I agree with the 12Z model guidance TVCA consensus model track.  Guidance should become more accurate IF this system becomes better organized.
12Z MODEL ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE
aal94_2023101612_track_early
I will continue to monitor this system for any significant changes to the forecast.

Elsewhere, models are indicating another Nor’easter to develop in about 5 – 6 days, and are split on the type of system.  The ECMWF indicating a “Miller type-A” and the GFS a “Miller type -B”.  I’ll have more on this beginning mid week.
ECMWF AND GFS

The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas.RADR.US
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
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You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST



palmharborforecastcenter

2023-10-16 15:05:10

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