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INVEST 94L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY…ISSUED OCT. 18, 2023…10:25 A.M. EDT

7 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          18
HURRICANES:                 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

The structure of INVEST 94L has become better organized over the past 24 hours At 12Z, the following information was available on INVEST 94L from the ATCF BTK product:
8:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 18
Location: 12.4°N 48.6°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
Analysis of visible imagery indicated the LLC may be moving under the deeper convection.  Based on my analysis of the CIMSS lower convergence and upper divergence maps, there could be a slight relocation of the center toward the SE.  Both convergence and divergence have improved greatly since yesterday’s forecast

INVEST 94L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (IR AND VIS)
INVEST.94L.IR
INVEST.94L.VIS
Based on analysis of current wind wind shear and upper level wind maps from CIMSS, The system is pretty much centered under a radial wind shear pattern, and the upper level winds suggest a more compact, upper level outflow pattern may be trying to become established.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
INVEST.94L.shear
INVEST.94L.upper
Based on analysis of forecast wind shear, 200 mb streamlines, mid level relative humidity, and precipitable water (PWAT), both the ECMWF and GFS models indicate forecast conditions to improve with the radial shear pattern improving, increase in mid level RH and PWAT values, and divergent 200 mb pattern in the streamline forecast, though not optimal.  PWAT values are forecast to be 140 – 180% above the normal.  The GFS is showing a little more favorable conditions than the ECMWF at the moment.  Based on the forecast, conditions become more conducive in the next 24 hours.  Based on this, and given the slight drop in pressure, 94L should continue gradual organization, and may become a Tropical Depression later today, or tomorrow.  Based on analysis of both models and recent SHIPS diagnostic report, conditions are forecast to remain somewhat conducive during the next 60 – 72 hours.  Based on this and the OHC in the projected path, 94L could attain Tropical Storm status in about 48 hours or so, and cannot rule out at the moment a minimal CAT 1 hurricane thereafter, but based on current intensity guidance, there is some split in the guidance at around 72 hours.  Based on this, I am going with a 60 – 70 mph Tropical Storm for this forecast, until model guidance comes into better agreement.  The majority of models, including the hurricane models, keep this a Tropical Storm, and low to mid end at that.  GFS at the moment is the outlier with a Cat 2 hurricane.   The ECMWF has come more into line in not dissipating the system once it reaches the islands, eventually recurving it, and on a little more southward track. The following graphics compare the ECMWF and GFS wind shear forecast and upper level pattern in 24 hours from 06Z.  Circles in shear and upper level winds indicate system location.
ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST CONDITIONS 24 HOURS
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-shear_850v200-7695200
gfs-deterministic-catl-shear_850v200-7695200
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-z200_speed-7695200
gfs-deterministic-catl-z200_speed-7695200
INVEST 94L was moving toward the WNW, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 24 hours.  There after at around 48 hours in the forecast period, based on analysis of forecast steering products, I expect more of a NW motion to ensue, as a weakness develops in the ridge due to an approaching deep layer trough.  This will again depend on the actual strength of the system.  IF the ECMWF is correct, then more of a westward component may be maintained.  As this becomes supposedly better organized, model guidance will improve on forecast track.  Given that the model guidance is pretty well inline with what I just explained, I agree for now with the guidance and prefer the TVCE and a little left of the track:
12Z GUIDANCE
aal94_2023101812_track_early
NHC 7 DAY GTWO

From the NHC:
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system, and watches may be required for some of the islands later today. Additional information, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to bring gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and flooding to portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning Friday.

The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas.RADR.US
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
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You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST



palmharborforecastcenter

2023-10-18 14:14:09

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