INVEST 94L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 17, 2023…6:30 P.M. EDT

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          18
HURRICANES:                 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

The structure of INVEST 94L has improved since analysis of satellite loop imagery earlier this morning.  At 18Z, the following information was available on INVEST 94L from the ATCF BTK product:
2:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 17
Location: 11.5°N 43.5°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
Analysis of visible imagery indicated the LLC seeming more defined, and now under some convection.  Both channels indicate a little more symmetry to the system.  Based on the presence of some arc clouds, the system is still dealing with just a little dry air.
INVEST 94L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (IR AND VIS)


Based on analysis of current wind wind shear and upper level wind maps from CIMSS, The system may be under just a little shear, however the current radial pattern has positioned very close to the LLC, and the upper level wind pattern has improved since earlier this morning, and appears an outflow pattern is trying to develop.  These improved conditions are now allowing for the slightly better organization.  Upper level divergence has improved along with vorticity and is now more symmetric
CIMSS WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL WINDS, AND VORTICITY

Based on analysis of forecast wind shear, 200 mb streamlines, mid level relative humidity, and precipitable water (PWAT), both the ECMWF and GFS models indicate forecast conditions to improve with the radial shear pattern improving, increase in mid level RH and PWAT values, and divergent 200 mb pattern in the streamline forecast, though not optimal.  The GFS is showing a little more favorable conditions than the ECMWF at the moment.  Based on the forecast, conditions should begin to become more conducive in the next 18 – 24 hours.  Based on this, and given the slight drop in pressure, and increase in wind speed, IF these conditions materialize, 94L should continue gradual organization, and may become a Tropical Depression within the next 24 – 30 hours.  Based on analysis of both models and recent SHIPS diagnostic report, conditions are forecast to remain somewhat conducive during the next 60 – 72 hours.  Based on this and the OHC in the projected path, 94L could attain Tropical Storm status in about 48 hours or so, and cannot rule out at the moment a minimal CAT 1 hurricane thereafter.  This is all going to depend on whether or not the forecast conditions are accurate.  This is basically going to be somewhat of a wait and see, as currently, the ECMWF which is generally the more accurate of the models, is the current outlier, showing 94L weakening prior to coming into the Leeward Islands in about 60 hours, while the other global models indicate this system strengthening and then recurving as per the current forecast track.  Over my past forecasting experience, the GFS has been the better model at forecasting wind shear for about a period of 72 hours, before changing its forecast.  Circles in shear and upper level winds indicate system location.
ECMWF FORECAST CONDITIONS 18 HOURS





CHI200 ANIMATION SHOWING DIVERGENT PATTERN

INVEST 94L was moving toward the WNW, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 24 – 48 hours from 12Z.  There after, based on analysis of forecast steering products, I expect more of a NW motion to ensue, as a weakness develops in the ridge due to an approaching deep layer trough.  This will again depend on the actual strength of the system.  IF the ECMWF is correct, then more of a westward component may be maintained.  As this becomes supposedly better organized, model guidance will improve on forecast track.  Given that the model guidance is pretty well inline with what I just explained, I agree for now with the guidance and prefer the TVCA and left of the track:
18Z GUIDANCE

NHC 7 DAY GTWO

From the NHC:
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Additional information, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to bring gusty winds, heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning Friday.
I will continue to monitor INVEST 94L for any significant changes in the forecast.  I’ll try to have something on the upcoming Nor’easter on Thur.

The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com