November 30, 2022

Weather News Road Conditions

Weather News & Forecast

INVEST 94L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…DISTURBANCE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED…ISSUED JUN. 26, 2022…5:50 P. M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

Dog with money

 

weather_1000px
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The NHC  increased the probability of cyclone formation to HIGH (70%) during the next 5 days regarding INVEST 94L.  NHC has held a LOW (20%) probability over the northern GOMEX for an area of low pressure.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)two_atl_5d0

Based on the ATCF BTK report from 18Z, the following information was available on INVEST 94L:
2:00 PM EDT Sun Jun 26
Location: 7.8°N 44.5°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb / 29.74 in
Max sustained: 35 mph

Based on this information, the barometric pressure has dropped from 1009 mb to 1007 mb.  As of 00Z last night, barometric pressure was at 1011 mb.

Satellite imagery shows a more organized system, but less organized than early this morning.  Analysis of current vorticity maps indicates vorticity is elongated near the surface, and is essentially lacking at 500 mb.  A small area of vorticity is noted at 500 mb, but north of the surface feature.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
77922283
90742707
90742707vis
You’ll note the improved cyclonic rotation, however the system still doesn’t appear fully organized yet, and with the elongated vorticity, even though surface winds are now 35 mph, this may be why the NHC hasn’t designated this a Tropical Depression as of yet.  The disturbance has been moving west during the past 12 hours at approximately 18 mph.  Based on analysis of the current steering layer mean, and forecast steering maps, INVEST 94L should continue on a west to just north of due west during the next 5 days (120 hours), and eventually more westward and should wind up into Nicaragua/Honduras by days 6 – 7 in the forecast period.  This again will depend on how strong the system may  become, and any changes that may occur in the steering pattern.  Given the steering layer forecast, I have to agree with the current track guidance models.
18Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE
atcf-invest94l-1656244800-6244800
Based on this analysis, INVEST 94L should approach over the Windward Islands in about 48 – 72 hours from 2:00 p.m. this afternoon, and may pass over and Trinidad and Tobago, and south of Barbados.  One item to note, the INVEST MAY be approaching, or have already become a Tropical Depression by that time, given forecast conditions still indicate slow and continued improving moisture and shear pattern through 120 hours.

Based on analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS, INVEST 94L is under very little shear at the moment, and during the next 72 hours in the forecast period, the wind shear “pattern” is forecast to become more favorable for development, based on both the ECMWF and GFS global models.  I’ll post both the MSLP anomalies forecast maps so you can see where the models show the system in relation to the shear pattern.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR INVEST 94L
94L.shear
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-6504000
gfs_mslp_sig_carib_72
ECMWF AND GFS WIND SHEAR

ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-6504000
gfs_dl_shear_carib_72
Both models still show a much better improvement of RH values up to the 500 mb level, and TPW values.  It appears that the “best” conditions may occur as the system enters the W. Caribbean around the 120 hour time frame.  You should be able to easily follow the area in the ECMWF animation from about 45.0W.
ECMWF 500 MB RH FORECAST AND PWAT FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-rh500-1656244800-1656277200-1656676800-40
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-pwat-1656244800-1656273600-1656676800-40
So, based on the overall analysis of forecast improving conditions, and SST’s of 28 – 29C and OHC of 50 – 75 kj/cm2, I believe INVEST 94L will continue to become better organized, and could become a Tropical Depression during the next 36 – 48 hours.  18z intensity guidance is already calling it a depression, however the organization has to become better.  Intensity guidance also indicates a Tropical Storm at around 48 – 60 hours in the forecast period, however, I believe this will come after the system enters the eastern Caribbean Sea, when conditions are forecast to become more favorable.
18Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE:
94L_intensity_latest

The current ECMWF EPS cyclone probability model indicates a high probability for a Tropical Depression, and medium to high probability for a Tropical Storm :
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY:
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_72
eps_tropcyc_prob_34_carib_96
eps_tropcyc_prob_34_carib_144Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

I will continue to monitor INVEST 94L for any significant changes, and for any significant changes in the forecast pattern.

Elsewhere, I do not anticipate Tropical Storm Formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-06-26 21:46:04

All news and articles are copyrighted to the respective authors and/or News Broadcasters. eWeatherNews is an independent Online News Aggregator


Read more from original source here…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

eWeatherNews.Com | Newsphere by AF themes.