December 10, 2023

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Weather News & Forecast

INVEST 93L / INVEST 92L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 09, 2023…3:40 P.M. EDT

6 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          17
HURRICANES:                 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

An area of low pressure and convection has developed over the BOC / extreme southern GOMEX this morning, and has now been designated INVEST 93L.  As of the 2:00 p.m. EDT ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 93L:
2:00 PM AST Mon Oct 9
Location: 19.9°N 94.7°W
Moving: WNW at 3 mph
Min pressure:1009 mb / 29.80 in
Max sustained: 30 mph
Based on visible satellite loop imagery and analysis of current vorticity maps, this low is somewhat disorganized, in that vorticity is located just SE of the heavy convection, on the coastline of the Yucatan Peninsula.

ECMWF EPS TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND TROPICAL STORM PROBABILITY
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_gulf_72
eps_tropcyc_prob_34_gulf_96
NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)

GOMEX IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
INVEST.93L
INVEST.93Lvis
925 MB VORTICITY
wg8vor5
At the moment, the forecast is going to be a little tricky to pinpoint.  The EPS guidance shows good probabilities for both a depression and Tropical Storm.  However, the area is under some shear at the moment.  The forecast, based on analysis indicates wind shear is supposed to subside during the next 12 – 18 hours.  Analysis of moisture products indicates this low will have ample moisture to work with up through the mid level, with the 200 mb pattern remaining zonal.  However during the 96 hour period, the low will only have a very brief window for any organization (approximately 24 hours) due to the lower shear and radial shear pattern developing briefly, before an approaching cold front absorbs the low.  Both the ECMWF and GFS indicate the low trying to develop, with the low then being elongated to a large area of lower pressure over the GOMEX.  So given the EPS forecast, and the forecast of the global models, we’re going to have to see if forecast conditions change abruptly, and see how this low begins to develop once fully over the BOC.  There is no track guidance at the moment, so residents along the Gulf coast from the TX / LA border to the FL. panhandle should monitor this system for the possibility of heavy rain along portions of the Gulf coast.  IF any type of watches, warnings, or statements are issued, I will incorporate them into this forecast and label it as an update.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY ANIMATION
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-mslp_norm_anom-1696809600-1696939200-1697198400-40
gfs-deterministic-gulf-mslp_norm_anom-1696831200-1696939200-1697198400-40
I will continue to monitor this area during the next 48 – 72 hours.

Elsewhere, INVEST 92L continues to slowly become better organized.  As of the 2:00 p.m. EDT ATCF BTK text, the following information was available on INVEST 92L:
2:00 PM AST Mon Oct 9
Location:8.0°N 27.7°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure:1010 mb / 29.83 in
Max sustained: 35 mph

INVEST 92L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
INVEST.92LVIR
INVEST.92LVIS
Based on analysis of current shear and upper level wind products from CIMSS, indications are shear appears to be relaxing and a radial pattern may be developing over the system.  Upper level winds indicate an outflow pattern may be taking shape.  Analysis of forecast wind shear, surface and mid level moisture products, and upper level pattern indicate ample moisture for the system to work with, and the shear pattern forecast to improve slowly during the next 72 hours to a more favorable pattern, while the 200 mb streamline pattern becomes somewhat marginal.  Based on this, and shear forecast from the SHIPS diagnostic report, INVEST 92L should continue to gradually organize, and may become a Tropical Depression within the next 36 hours.  Current intensity guidance indicates this becoming a Tropical Storm by that time, however based on the aforementioned conditions, I feel this may be a bit slower to occur.  Based on analysis of forecast steering products, and MSLP anomaly animations, 92L should continue toward the west during the next 24 hours before turning more to the NW toward a weakness in the ridge.
aal92_2023100912_track_early

The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas.RADR.US
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
canvas
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

 



palmharborforecastcenter

2023-10-09 19:28:47

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