INVEST 93L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 10, 2023…4:15 P.M. EDT

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          17
HURRICANES:                 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

INVEST 93L satellite loop imagery indicates an exposed LLC and limited convection to the east.
INVEST 93L IR AND VISIBLE LOOP IMAGERY


Currently, the system is under about 15 kts of shear, however the center of the radial pattern has inched a little closer to the LLC.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
INVEST 93L   As of the 2:00 p.m. EDT ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 93L:
2:00 PM AST Tue Oct 10
Location: 21.8°N 94.6°W
Moving: NNW at 7 mph
Min pressure:1005 mb / 29.68 in
Max sustained: 30 mph
Maximum sustained winds were 30 mph.  Based on analysis of current shear tendency, shear has reduced slightly during the past 24 hours.  Analysis of forecast shear maps from the ECMWF and GFS indicate shear may abate slightly more, with the radial pattern moving very close to almost over the center of the LLC, but remaining marginal.  However, this will be extremely brief based on the forecast, with the SHIPS diagnostic report increasing shear after this evening.  So, 93L has a very, very breif window to organize and remain of tropical entity.  By sometime tomorrow, shear is forecast to increase as a frontal boundary comes in and begins to absorb 93L.  While current intensity guidance shows 93L becoming a tropical storm, my feeling is this will not be tropical.  It could possibly attain sub-tropical status, however once it becomes part of the front, any further strengthening will be due to baroclinicity.  Current intensity guidance suggests 45 – 50 mph sustained winds.  The system will have plenty of moisture to work with, however shear and the upper level pattern will not be favorable once the front does its dirty work.   The increasing shear will “shear out” the energy near Mexico, and as the front picks the system up., will allow for another surface low to develop over the northern GOMEX.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY, PWAT, RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND SURFACE WIND FORECAST ANIMATIONS




Regardless of tropical cyclone development residents along the Gulf coastal regions should monitor the possibility of heavy rainfall, large wave heights near shore, and possible coastal flooding in areas where the highest waves will be located.  A Marine and Gale Warning are in effect for the Gulf of Mexico.
NHC OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST LINK:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml
WAVEWATCH 3 WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST

WPC 5 DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST

Based on the ATCF BTK report, 93L was moving NNW, or just west of due north at around 5 mph.  Based on my analysis of forecast steering maps and MSLP animations, I expect this motion to continue through tonight.  As the front approaches, steering layer winds are forecast to flow more from the SSW to NNE, and the system should take more of a track toward the NNE or NE.  Based on this analysis, I agree with the updated track guidance and prefer the TVCA consensus model.  I will continue to monitor this system during the next 48 hours.
18Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

I had planned on putting the upcoming Nor’easter in today’s forecast, however given the lateness of the afternoon, I will try to give a forecast on it tomorrow.  Given the nature of 93L, it took more time as there was more to analyze, and models were slow in updating today.

The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)

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