INVEST 93L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 16, 2022…7:50 P. M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

INVEST 93L remains located inland over northern Honduras.
The NHC has decreased the  probability for formation over the next 5 days to LOW (10%).
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

Analysis of recent satellite loop imagery indicates the INVEST lacks organization, however you can still make out a distinct LLC.  I have circled where the center is located in the still visible satellite image, so you know where to look in the visible animation.
GOES 16 STILL SATELLITE IMAGE

GOES 16 IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP ANIMATIONS


Based on the latest ATCF BTK information at 18Z (2:00 P.M. EDT), the following information was available on INVEST 91L:
LOCATION: 15.3N; 84.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 25 MPH
MOTION: NNW 7 MPH
PRESSURE: 1011 mb / 29.85 in

The BTK information suggests winds remain at 25 mph, however the pressure has risen 2 millibars since last night.  Based on analysis of all the maps from the ECMWF and GFS global models that were analyzed yesterday evening,  high surface moisture and high RH values up through 500 mb are still forecast to be in place as INVEST 93L moves briefly into the Gulf of Honduras.  The forecast wind shear pattern shows an improvement in the current run of the models.  You’ll note the lower shear values which are circled in both models, along with a radial pattern (favorable for development).  Both models indicated an improved 200 mb streamline pattern as well, with better diffluence being forecast.
ECMWF AND GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST


Based on these forecast parameters, there could be some organization that may begin much later this evening, as the center SHOULD be exiting land and into the Gulf of Honduras.  Based on track guidance and information in the NHC outlook, INVEST 93L would have a short window for some development, which would be late tonight, and on Friday.  So basically, we are looking at a 24 hour time period from 18Z today to 18Z  (2:00 p. m. EDT) tomorrow.  Based on proximity to land and poorly organized look this evening, and the short window for development, I believe we should see this begin to organize once into the Gulf of Honduras, however this should be slow to moderate to occur.  Given this, I believe development of a Tropical Depression is slim, though as I said, we could see some decent organization begin occur.

Based on the BTK report, INVEST 93L was moving toward the NNW.  Based on analysis of current steering layer mean and forecast steering maps, I expect this motion to continue through the night, with a bend more toward the WNW then eventually west into Mexico.  Current guidance pretty much mimics what was observed in my analysis of the low level forecast steering layer mean over the next 36 hours.  Based on this, I prefer the southern most guidance models at the moment.
ATCF 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE

I will continue to monitor the area during the next 24 hours for any significant changes in the forecast, however I will not be able to update tomorrow evening.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST