Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11– 14
TOTAL HURRICANES : 5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2 – 3
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
NAMED STORMS: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season. As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands. Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO MAPS
First, let’s begin with something else…the NHC has named Tropical Storm EMILY, and T. D. SIX.
Analysis of satellite loop imagery from earlier, indicating exposed LLC’s, tells me, this is not a Tropical Storm, and the second, is not a Tropical Depression:
End of discussion.
ATLANTIC WIDE SATELLITE LOOP FROM WEATHERNERDS
The wave that has entered the eastern GOMEX has now been designated INVEST 91L. Based on recent satellite loop imagery, 91L appears to be slowly getting better organized, and displaying a decent increase in convection:
INVEST 91L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
As of the 18Z ATCF BTK product, the following was available on INVEST 91L:
2:00 P.M. EDT Sun Aug 20
Location: 24.6°N 84.6°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb / 29.88 in
Max sustained: 25 mph
Based on the information, 91L is currently moving toward the WNW. Based on analysis of current and forecast steering maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 24 hours, with a possible slight bend westward thereafter. Based on this, and current track guidance just initialized, I believe landfall will occur between Baffin Bay and Brownsville TX. within the next 42 – 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 25mph. Recent information from CIMSS indicates 91L is under favorable conditions with a developing radial shear pattern, high PWAT, and semi-outflow pattern in the upper levels.
CIMSS 91L WIND SHEAR
CIMSS 91L PWAT
CIMSS 91L UPPER LEVEL WINDS
Based on analysis of both the ECMWF and GFS, the radial shear pattern, mid level moisture, and PWAT are forecast to be with the system during the next 36 – 42 hours. The 200 mb streamline forecast shows the upper level anti-cyclone east of the center, with limited outflow occurring from over the system, and WNW. The system has approximately the 36 hour time frame to develop, before wind shear is forecast to increase. Based on this, and information contained in the latest SHIPS diagnostic report, 91L could become a Tropical Depression within the next 24 hours. As a basic rule of thumb, systems that reside in the Gulf can go through what we call rapid feedback just prior to making landfall. Some of this has to do with the shape of the Gulf coast. Based on the forecast favorable conditions analyzed, I believe 91L could become a minimal Tropical Storm just prior to landfall. Residents with in the mentioned landfall area could experience some minor coastal flooding, and possible flooding of low lying areas. Based on the wave height projection, it is recommended that residents remain away from the shore, and small craft remain in port until this system passes. The ECMWF EPS Cyclone formation probability forecast is now at 90% probability for development of a Tropical Depression.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES, WIND SHEAR, PWAT, AND 200 MB FORECAST
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST
WAVEWATCH 3 FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS
NAM AND ECMWF 72 HOUR TOTAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST
The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
INVEST 90L in the Caribbean, has just been upgraded to Tropical Storm Franklin. I will be foregoing a forecast on him this evening since time is an issue, as I should have time to spend on the system once we deal with the system in the GOMEX. Franklin is forecast to make a sharp turn north and cross over Hispaniola during the next 48 – 72 hours. Once this occurs, forecast conditions are supposed to improve, and the system could become a CAT 1 hurricane by 120 hours in the forecast period. Current guidance suggests this remains at sea, however if he misses the trof which is currently forecast to back away over the eastern U.S., a slim possibility would exist for a possible U.S. threat. However, this is very low probability/low confidence at this time.
FRANKLIN SATELLITE LOOP
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Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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