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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good evening everyone!
The NHC has increased the probability of tropical cyclone development over the Yucatan area in the 5 day tropical weather outlook to a HIGH (80%) probability:
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
GOES 16 satellite loop imagery shows a pretty defined center of circulation, NW of the heavy convection area, with the center slightly exposed. The system has now been designate INVEST 91L.
GOES 16 IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
Based on the last ATCF BTK information at 18Z (2:00 P.M. EDT), the following information was available on INVEST 91L:
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 30 MPH
MOTION: NNE 6 MPH
PRESSURE: 1007 mb/29.74 in
Maximum sustained winds were 30 mph. Based on analysis of the factors mentioned in my synopsis last night, there really hasn’t been any changes to the forecast as far as ample surface moisture (PWAT), high relative humidity values from 850 to 500 mb, and very warm SST’s of 28.0C (82F) in the forecast path. These conditions are very favorable for tropical development. However, given the large size of the system, and the current upper level winds and wind shear forecast, I am not expecting very steady or significant development at the moment. Both the ECMWF and GFS global models indicate a more favorable wind shear pattern over the next 24 hours, when thereafter, wind shear is forecast to become less conducive. Currently, the area is under 25-30 kts of westerly shear, hence the exposed LLC and convection being blown off to the east.
INVEST 91L CURRENT WIND SHEAR FROM CIMSS
Analysis of the 200 mb streamline pattern indicates the lack of an established radial or semi-radial outflow pattern, and favors just more of a diffluent flow (spreading out of air in one direction). The 200 mb jetstreak I have been speaking about is still forecast to be present as the system approaches Florida. his will contribute to the diffluence aloft, pulling air away from the system in one direction, in this case, in a NE to ENE direction. This will aid in convergence at the seas surface, but not enough for any significant development. Based on this, and analysis of the current intensity guidance graph, INVEST should become a Tropical Depression during the next 24-36 hours, and possibly a Tropical Storm once exiting into the Atlantic off the SEUS. Again, I will remind you, that any changes to more favorable conditions will allow for a more organized and stronger system. The following graphics will show the conditions mentioned above:
ECMWF PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST (PWAT)
ECMWF RELATIVE HUMIDITY 4 PANEL FORECAST
ECMWF SURFACE WIND FORECAST
I chose the ECMWF surface wind map, as the GFS currently shows winds of Tropical Storm strength.
Based on the ATCF BTK information, INVEST 91L was moving slowly toward the NNE. Based on model analysis, the LLC appears to wobble briefly over the next 24 hours, before resuming a general NNE motion. The ECMWF and GFS pretty much agree on this, with the GFS a little further south. Based on my analysis of forecast steering layer maps, and current forecast track guidance, the ECMWF seems to have a better handle on track at the moment, and I prefer the TVCA / TVCE consensus models track. Again, actual track will depend on organization and strength, and any center reformation that may occur. The following is track guidance from the ATCF:
ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE FROM RAL AND WEATHERBELL.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST
This will be a very wet system. Regardless of development, residents of south and central Florida should monitor the progress of this system, as locally heavy rainfall is expected over south Florida and the Florida Keys. Any shift further north, could bring locally heavy rainfall closer to central Florida. With the heavy rainfall, localized flooding is possible, especially in low lying areas.
WPC 7 DAY QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
I will continue to monitor the area during the next 48 hours for any significant changes in the forecast, and for any organization.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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