December 4, 2022

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Invest 91L 80% at Noon But Will Odds Be Lowered Later? Models Mostly Recurve It … Too Soon To Tell. Can It Find a Sweet Spot…

4 min read

Above is days ago.

A tighter signature.

Trying to close off a center.

Below is yesterday.

Large system, less organized.

This morning….

Actually looks a bit better today.

Why it’s 80% is beyond me.

Maybe 60% or 70%

Just battling a lot of negative elements.

And it’s huge and has multiple centers.

Vying for attention.

Shear there.

ULL ate away at it.

Wrote this last night.

After putting up #icantijustcant

This whole episode known as Invest 91L has been hard to swallow. For days there was barely any “there” there and they keep upping the odds. I get the models kept seeing things but the shear has been high literally tearing apart anything that tries to form. The bigger a wave is the harder it is to pull together, it’s been cruising so slow it looks like a cruise ship whose engine died and it’s just pushing along to the West with the current.  

While “home” in Miami trying to catch as many kids, grandkids and friends as I can in a few days I have barely sat by the computer and looped. I jump on the phone, off the phone, on the phone. I hate waves that do this because either they drain everyone and lower people’s guard down thinking “nothing is forming this year” or some part of the energy suddenly winds up and develops quickly. I can’t see that happening. I jumped on the computer this morning to catch a part of Mike talking (he talks long easy to catch him) and this is the shear map that we aren ALL looking at wondering how any model could see this getting closer to the Island and USA as a developing system. Red/yellow/orange is shear and there’s literally a wall of shear.

Jim puts it simply.

Crazy models don’t kill it off yesterday …

These are the models currently.

They don’t kill it off (interestingly)

They show it recurving.

Gaining in latitude.

Yes, some models seem to want to go West.

If there is an area where this wave known as Invest 91L can gain traction it will take advantage of that as it tends to be a fighter and was a good candidate for the next named storm after breaking record after record for going nameless in the Caribbean. When I say Caribbean I mean “generally West Indies, Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico” that place that harbors tropical storms that explode into nasy Hurricanes.

Sometimes what you get in the Bahamas close in or just near there isn’t what you see in the distant Atlantic. 

Honestly, surprised the NHC has it at 80% but imagine they want to run a few more models before walking it back down some. Perhaps get closer to fly recon into it. Not sure. 

The problem with big systems with multiple centers along an axix vying for superiority is that IF a system forms and takes hold further to the NE than a track out to sea is more likely, should a center form further SW far from the previous center further away from the Shear Zone than the track gets pulled further West. Easy to ask.. “Why won’t it just go West with the flow into the Caribbean?” The answer is that the shear there at the entrance to the Caribbean is rather strong if a piece of the energy did go that way another part might keep heading NW along with the models. It’s really a crap shoot with a crappy Invest, but I have seen crappy Invests and or depressions turn into Hurricane Harvey and Jeanne looked to be totally gone, regrouped and made landfall in Florida as a hurricane so until it’s totally dead in the water with the last cloud of moisture evaporated into the dry air above it… just keep watching it while going about life and living. 

Til then sitting by the river….

watching the boats go up and down the river.

Revisiting old haunts with my kids.

Hoping to see close friends tonight.

Waiting to see what happens in the tropics.

So far the season forecasts are losing badly.

Maybe October will deliver home more than we bargained for.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

As always in the city that was built in the Roaring 20s…

… I’m in a Roaring 20s mood.

Talked to an Old Timer Last night about the 1926 Hurricane.

Some people remember, others refuse to believe it’ll happen again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th-BtR7Embw  link to video on 1926 Miami Hurricane if you had problems loading the above video. Watch… it’ll happen again. I’m sure but it’ll be different as they always are. Similar but different. 

noreply@blogger.com (BobbiStorm)

2022-08-30 16:53:00

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