December 1, 2022

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INVEST 90L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 22, 2022…8:30 P. M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes.  Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather.  Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes.  Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both.  I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat.  Thanks for your understanding.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Sorry I’ve missed everyone for a couple days.  Had personal business to take care of for church.

The NHC has declared INVEST 90L in the GOMEX.  Since this appeared to have been declared at approx. 18Z (2:00 p. m. EDT), most of the sites involving TC guidance have not updated yet.  As of the 2:00 p. m. ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 90L:

2:00 PM EDT Sun May 22
Location: 26.6°N 88.0°W
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1014 mb / 29.94 in
Max sustained: 30 mph

The NHC has designated a LOW (10%) probability for development during the next 5 days.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO
two_atl_5d1
INVEST 90L IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS
60866571
60866571VIS
You’ll note the circulation is in between the two heavy areas of convection.

Based on my analysis this evening of the ECMWF and GFS global models, NEITHER model indicates an area of low pressure in the GOMEX on the latest runs.  However, this INVEST is associated with a trof ow lower pressure.  A trof is an elongated area of low pressure.

Analysis of recent upper level moisture, relative humidity forecast maps indicates ample RH values up to the mid levels (500 mb), however TPW is moderate at best.  Wind shear over the area is on the order of  10-15 knots, and the ECMWF and GFS indicate wind shear to remain somewhat conducive up until this INVEST comes ashore.  Two things against it however are, the lack of an outflow pattern currently observed in CIMSS upper wind analysis, and in the 200 mb streamline forecast from the global models.  The other is, although the SST’s are 27C-28C, INVEST 90L will be crossing into lower OHC in about 24 hours.  Based on my analysis of these forecast parameters, this may have a very slim chance at becoming slightly better organized prior to coming ashore, however with the lack of 200 mb outflow, I do not feel at the moment this will be a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm.  I will however continue to monitor this in the event conditions change between now and landfall, as we’ve seen conditions change in as little as 12 hours.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR
90L.SHEAR
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-3285600
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-3307200
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
90L.UPPER

CIMSS TPW
90L.TPW
CIMSS OHC
90L.OHC
Based on analysis of low level steering currents and steering currents forecast, I expect a general NNE motion to continue through the next 48 hours.  The following are forecast tracks from the ECMWF EPS and the GEFS
AL90_2022052212_ECENS_0-120h
AL90_2022052212_GEFS_0-120h

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could occur along with localized flooding.  From the NHC:
Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.

The following graphic is 5 day quantitative precipitation forecast from the NWS WPC
FIVE DAY QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
p120i
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
As stated, I will be monitoring this area for any significant changes.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-05-23 00:29:21

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