INVEST 90L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 22, 2022…8:30 P. M. EDT5 min read
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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The NHC has declared INVEST 90L in the GOMEX. Since this appeared to have been declared at approx. 18Z (2:00 p. m. EDT), most of the sites involving TC guidance have not updated yet. As of the 2:00 p. m. ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 90L:
2:00 PM EDT Sun May 22
Location: 26.6°N 88.0°W
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1014 mb / 29.94 in
Max sustained: 30 mph
The NHC has designated a LOW (10%) probability for development during the next 5 days.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO
INVEST 90L IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS
You’ll note the circulation is in between the two heavy areas of convection.
Based on my analysis this evening of the ECMWF and GFS global models, NEITHER model indicates an area of low pressure in the GOMEX on the latest runs. However, this INVEST is associated with a trof ow lower pressure. A trof is an elongated area of low pressure.
Analysis of recent upper level moisture, relative humidity forecast maps indicates ample RH values up to the mid levels (500 mb), however TPW is moderate at best. Wind shear over the area is on the order of 10-15 knots, and the ECMWF and GFS indicate wind shear to remain somewhat conducive up until this INVEST comes ashore. Two things against it however are, the lack of an outflow pattern currently observed in CIMSS upper wind analysis, and in the 200 mb streamline forecast from the global models. The other is, although the SST’s are 27C-28C, INVEST 90L will be crossing into lower OHC in about 24 hours. Based on my analysis of these forecast parameters, this may have a very slim chance at becoming slightly better organized prior to coming ashore, however with the lack of 200 mb outflow, I do not feel at the moment this will be a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. I will however continue to monitor this in the event conditions change between now and landfall, as we’ve seen conditions change in as little as 12 hours.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
Based on analysis of low level steering currents and steering currents forecast, I expect a general NNE motion to continue through the next 48 hours. The following are forecast tracks from the ECMWF EPS and the GEFS
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could occur along with localized flooding. From the NHC:
Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.
The following graphic is 5 day quantitative precipitation forecast from the NWS WPC
FIVE DAY QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
As stated, I will be monitoring this area for any significant changes.
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Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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