November 27, 2020

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

HURRICANE ZETA MAKES LANDFALL / POSSIBLE CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 28, 2020…8:00 P.M. EDT

6 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 27
HURRICANES: 11
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4

U.S. LANDFALLS: 11
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
Hurricane ZETA makes landfall near Cocodrie, LA. as a strong category 2 hurricane.  Sustained winds increased quickly today, and ZETA reached sustained winds of 110 mph.  I’d like to point out 2 things, regarding my previous forecast, and the increase quickly of the sustained winds.  I had forecast that I felt ZETA would attain winds of 90 mph prior to landfall, which was reflected in the NHC discussion this a.m.  Did I miss the intensity forecast?  Not really.  Because I work full time, the only forecast information I can analyze is the latest updates for when I begin my forecasts, around this time in the evening, so my forecast is based on forecast conditions at that time.  I do not get to analyze forecast data, or satellite loops until I get home from work.  Unfortunately, I am not home all day to perform a continuous analysis when models update, nor analyze satellite data to see changes in the structure of the storm and various developments in satellite imagery.  We’re I able to do this, I could have updated everyone to this possible increase in strength.  Prior to having to obtain a job, I used to follow things all day, many years ago, so I am kind of at a disadvantage not being able to detect important changes.

It is thought (my thinking) that albeit OHC was extremely low, SST’s were 27C where ZETA attained CAT 2 status.  In addition, the upper level outflow pattern was not diagnosed too well by the global models yesterday evening, and upper level winds were much stronger than forecast, providing some overdone outflow, which is currently mentioned by the NHC.  Another item I had totally forgotten about is, as a hurricane approaches the coast in the GOMEX, the shape of the GOMEX aids in what is termed forced convergence, in that the surface winds turn back in toward the center of the storm.

The following is the 200 mb winds forecast map for right around the time ZETA attained CAT 2.  The red circle represents the approximate location of ZETA at that time
ECMWF 200 WINDS (KTS)

As you can see by the CIMSS upper level winds map from 20Z, the upper level outflow was was screaming at around 50 – 70 kts.  Although there was really no southern outflow channel, the northern channel was fairly massive.
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Zeta should continue on the forecast track, and could bring heavy seas and strong winds to the New England area by Fri.
GOES 16 CLOSEUP SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)
https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202010282325_25.75_34.25_-97.25_-83.25_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png
COD NWS RADAR LOOP (CLICK IMAGE FOR LOOP CONTROLS)

The following is the NWS Warning and Hazard display.  Click the map, and when the map posts, click on your area of interest for update NWS information

NWS WARNING AND HAZARD MAP

The following links will provide you with current storm information, local NWS updates and actions to be taken, as well as what effects can be expected:
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/262354.shtml?

NHC GRAPHICS PAGE
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/211404.shtml?radii#contents

LOCAL NWS HURRICANE PRODUCTS (CLICK ON THE BOLD BLUE TEXT)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls3+shtml/262155.shtml?


WPC 5 DAY QPF FORECAST


ECMWF

GFS

This will be my final update on ZETA.

Elsewhere, the ECMWF EPS indicates the probability of another development in the Caribbean Sea between 6 – 8 days in the forecast period from 12Z (8:00 a.m. EDT this morning)  The model currently indicates a 60 – 70% probability of a Tropical Depression developing by Nov. 05, and a 25% probability of a Tropical Storm by Nov. 07.  I will be monitoring this area beginning this weekend.
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL DEPRESSION PROBABILITY
TROPICAL STORM PROBABILITY

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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