February 28, 2021

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 26, 2020…8:55 P.M. EDT

6 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 27
HURRICANES: 11
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4

U.S. LANDFALLS: 10
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
I am not going to get too much into graphics tonight, as current information is more important than pictures.  It will be helpful for one to read the entire forecast through.

Tropical Storm ZETA was upgraded to a Hurricane earlier today.  Current satellite loop imagery indicates the hurricane is becoming a little better organized as it moves closer to the Yucatan Peninsula.
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES (CLICK IMAGES FOR ANIMATION)


The CDO has become better developed over the center, as the LLC was exposed just north of the heavy convection earlier today due to a little shear.  Based on the 8:00 p.m. intermediate advisory from the NHC,  the following was available on ZETA:

7:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 26
Location: 19.9°N 86.6°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb / 29.03 in
Max sustained: 80 mph
The hurricane is moving to the NW and based on my analysis this evening of current forecast steering layers maps, and tightly clustered model guidance, there is no change in my thinking on the forecast track.  ZETA should continue on a NW track for approximately the next 36 hours, moving around the western periphery of a ridge, now centered in the Tropical Atlantic:
CURRENT STEERING LAYER FOR ZETA

By approximately Wed. afternoon, a more northerly track should ensue, as a shortwave trof approaches.  As this trof moves closer, ZETA should turn toward the NNE then NE by the end of the forecast period.  Based on this analysis, I concur with the current NHC forecast trackBy tomorrow evening, I hope to have a better idea of where actual landfall may occur.  This will allow for any wobble in track due to interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula.
NHC FORECAST TRACK

ATCF 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE


Maximum sustained winds were 80 mph with higher gusts.  Zeta is forecast to make landfall in a few hours, and weakening should begin as this occurs.  However, it appears land interaction will be minimal, and ZETA may not weaken very much.

Based on my analysis of the current wind shear forecast and 200 mb streamlines forecast, upper level winds should remain favorable for re-strengthening right up to around 48 – 54 hours, or on Wed. afternoon.  IF the core of the hurricane can recover quickly, I believe ZETA could become slightly stronger than projected in the 36 – 48 hour time frame in the NHC intensity forecast, and would not rule out a possibility of ZETA attaining 90 mph, prior to the weakening phase.  Other than this, based on the forecast premise of increasing SW shear, as ZETA reaches near 26.0N, and a dramatic drop in OHC, ZETA should begin weakening as forecast by the NHC intensity forecast.  However, the forecast doesn’t indicate whether ZETA will make landfall as a minimal CAT 1 hurricane, or a very strong Tropical Storm.  Analysis of the global and hurricane models, and the regional NAM model, indicate a CAT 1 landfall.  Regardless, winds and storm surge will most likley provide conditions of a CAT 1 hurricane.  In the storm surge graphics from the SLOSH software, the surge values depicted are plus or minus 20% of the values indicated, and are for a CAT 1 hurricane moving to the NNE @25mph forward speed.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 26/2100Z 19.5N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 20.5N 87.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.1N 89.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 24.2N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 26.8N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 30.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 35.0N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 42.0N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1800Z…DISSIPATED

The following is the experimental peak surge map from the NHC

The following is surge data from the SLOSH software data base:
ZETA APPROXIMATE SURGE VALUES MEAN TIDE

HIGH TIDE

Based on calculations using the I.K.E. calculator, SDP (Surge Destructive Potential) may be at 2.26, based on a scale of 0 – 6.

The following is the NWS Warning and Hazard display.  Click the map, and when the map posts, click on your area of interest for update NWS information

NWS WARNING AND HAZARD MAP

Watches and Warnings have been issued by the NHC.  IF you are under a HURRICANE WATCH, PLEASE implement your hurricane preparedness plan NOW!
NHC WATCH/WARNING MAP


The following links will provide you with current storm information, local NWS updates and actions to be taken, as well as what effects can be expected:
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/262354.shtml?

NHC GRAPHICS PAGE
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/211404.shtml?radii#contents

LOCAL NWS HURRICANE PRODUCTS (CLICK ON THE BOLD BLUE TEXT)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls3+shtml/262155.shtml?

I will continue to monitor ZETA for any significant changes over the next 36 – 48 hours.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS



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