January 21, 2021

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Hurricane Warnings Issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay; Eta Emerging Off the Caast of Cuba : The Alabama Weather Blog

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The center of Tropical Storm Eta has emerged off the north coast of Cuba this morning and it is turning to the north as forecast.

It will be turning northwest through the morning. It will become a hurricane later today over the warm water north of Cuba. It will pass just west of Key West early Monday morning. It will then drift west and southwest over the warm water of the southeastern Gulf, maintaining hurricane intensity but not getting above 75 mph.

The hurricane should start weakening by Wednesday and turn northeast, heading toward the Florida Peninsula, heading for a landfall near or north of Tampa late in the week or weekend.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

…HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY…
…EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.5N 79.2W
ABOUT 90 MI…55 KM W OF CANAGUA CUBA
ABOUT 235 MI…380 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida
Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
including Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor
the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or
Warnings could be required for some of these areas on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft and Cuban radars indicate that the center of Tropical Storm
Eta was located just north of central Cuba near latitude 22.5
North, longitude 79.2 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 14
mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northwest is
expected by this afternoon, followed by a northwestward turn by this
evening, and a westward motion by early Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will continue to move over the Florida
Straits between Cuba and the Bahamas today, pass near or over the
Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Eta could become a hurricane before it reaches the
Florida Keys tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum
storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding
is also possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay…2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay…2-4 ft
Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA…1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Florida Keys by early
Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue
in the warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in
the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys this
afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Florida by early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday
over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually
subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and
Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical



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