December 4, 2022

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HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 09, 2022…8:10 P.M. EST

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:       8
MAJOR HURRICANES:      2

U. S. LANDFALLS: 3

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Good evening everyone!

At 6:00 p.m. EST, NICOLE became a category ONE hurricane on the SAFFIR-SIMPSON hurricane wind scale.  This occurred as she made landfall on Grand Bahama Island.  IR satellite loop imagery indicates limited convection, with the storm and somewhat ragged appearance of the eyewall.  Water vapor loop imagery indicates an overall improvement of moisture in the mid level, however some slight intrusion still exists.  As of the 7:00 p.m. EST intermediate advisory, the following was available on Hurricane NICOLE:
7:00 PM EST Wed Nov 9
Location: 26.6°N 78.5°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb / 28.94 in
Max sustained: 75 mph
NHC TRACK AND WATCH/WARNING MAP (LINKED TO NHC)
205355_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind
GOES 16 IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY

94129337
WV
Analysis of the global models ECMWF and GFS still insist on showing a radial shear pattern over the storm at this time, however analysis of CIMSS current shear and upper level winds are still showing the same pattern as what was posted yesterday evening.  Based on the lack of the actual radial shear pattern, and upper level pattern remaining the same up to landfall, and the presence of some slightly drier mid level air, I have to agree with the NHC intensity forecast in that NICOLE should maintain her current maximum sustained winds up until landfall.  At the moment, I do not feel further strengthening is indicated, however given the time left over the warm waters, any further strengthening would be slight.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 4:00 P.M. EST

INIT 09/2100Z 26.5N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 27.3N 80.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 28.8N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 31.0N 84.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 34.6N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z…DISSIPATED
The following link is to the 7:00 p.m. EST intermediate advisory…PLEASE CLICK THE LINK AND READ THE ADVISORY!!!
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/092355.shtml?

The following are the experimental storm surge values from the NHC.  This graphic is linked to the NHC graphics page.  PLEASE click on it to view all NHC graphics regarding NICOLE:
STORM SURGE GRAPHIC
205355_peak_surge
The following are storm surge values utilizing SLOSH DATA software.  The first graphic is for a CAT 1 hurricane moving at a forward speed of 15 mph at landfall for mean tide.  The second is for high tide

SLOSH DATA CAT 1 HURRICANE MEAN TIDE
NICOLE.displayCAT1mean
HIGH TIDE
NICOLE.displayCAT1high

NICOLE was reported as moving to the west, however based on my analysis of forecast steering layers, and track guidance, NICOLE should be turning more toward the WNW by tomorrow.  Based on this analysis, I agree with the current NHC forecast track posted above.  I really see no significant change in track occurring at the moment, and guidance is still tightly clustered.
18Z TRACK GUIDANCE
AL17_current
The following is an animated radar loop from COD from radar in the Bahamas.  Please click the image, then scroll to the animation controls (arrows) near the bottom right of the image that pops up
COD NICOLE RADAR LOOP
COD-GOES-East-local-Gulf_Stream.radar.20221110.003000.gif-over=map-bars=

The following link is for NWS local hurricane products.  Once you click the link, you want to click on the bold blue lettering under each heading:
NWS LOCAL PRODUCTS LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls2+shtml/072137.shtml

The following map will allow to to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)

This will be my last update on NICOLE, as she should make landfall while I’m at work tomorrow

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-11-10 01:00:25

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