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HURRICANE LEE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 15, 2023…12:10 P.M. EDT

6 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          13
HURRICANES:                 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.

Hurricane LEE appears to be starting his extra-tropical transition.  As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on LEE:
11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 15
Location: 36.0°N 66.9°W
Moving: NNE at 18 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb/28.41in
Max sustained: 80 mph
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 HURRICANE LEE LOOP IMAGERY

LEE.IR
LEE.VIS
lee.conus
LEE is now moving toward the NNE.  Based on my analysis of the current and forecast steering pattern, LEE should continue this motion up until landfall along the coast of western Nova Scotia.  Analysis of the global models, indicate all of the models are pretty much in agreement, and model track guidance from ATCF is tightly clustered and I concur with the guidance and current NHC forecast track:
12Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE
https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2023/al132023/track_early/aal13_2023091512_track_early.png
NHC FORECAST TRACK
cone graphic
Analysis of the satellite of the satellite loop imagery tends to  indicate the LEE may be beginning the process to extra-tropical, based on the fact the processes maintaining the hurricanes strength are becoming more baroclinic vice barotropic.  Analysis of the shear and upper level winds products from CIMSS indicates wind shear over LEE is now around 40 – 50 kts, and the upper level outflow pattern has deteriorated and has become zonal. along with dry air entering the southern side of the storm.  Satellite imagery also indicated a sheared system.  Analysis of vorticity at the various levels indicated the system is becoming less vertically stacked.  Based on this, and the lack of any discernible ADT information on LEE, I believe he is close to being extra or post tropical.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
LEE.SHEAR
LEE.UPPER
ADT WIND FIELD OF LEE (GRAPHIC LINKED TO REPORT)
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/13L-2DWIND.GIF
Based on this analysis, I agree pretty much with the NHC intensity forecast, with the exception I believe he will complete the transition sooner.
INIT 15/1500Z 36.0N 66.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 38.5N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 41.8N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 45.1N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1200Z 47.8N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/0000Z 50.8N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1200Z 53.4N 51.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1200Z…DISSIPATED
Please refer to the NHC Public Advisory link for watches, warnings, and hazards the affected areas:
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/151446.shtml?
WPC RAINFALL POTENTIAL FORECAST
[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]
NHC PEAK STORM SURGE

[Image of cumulative wind history]
The following link contains local hurricane products from your local NWS.  Once on the page, click the bold blue under local impacts and local statement:
LOCAL PRODUCTS LINK

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls3+shtml/151530.shtml?

NHC GRAPHICS PAGE
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/203849.shtml?3-daynl
WAVEWATCH 3 WAVE HEIGHTS AND DIRECTION FORECAST
ww3-conuswide-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-1694757600-1694757600-1694930400-20

I will continue to monitor the progress of LEE for any significant changes that may occur to the forecast conditions.

Elsewhere, I’m calling out the NHC again.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT, the NHC upgraded INVEST 97L and began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 15.  The following IS NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE! The following is from the NHC glossary page:
Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.

I’d like for the NHC to explain to me, where in the hell is the DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION?  In the satellite image the center is located according to the NHC at 14.4N;43.8W….which means the COC is located south of the 15.0N latitude line.  Do you see any deep organized convection where the arrow is pointing?  Anyhow, I’ll continue to keep tabs on this system, and will most likely begin forecasting on it in a couple days.
GOES16_1km_vis_202309151435_5.00_22.00_-54.00_-26.25_vis1_ltngge_hgwy_warn_weathernerdsThe following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas.RADR.US
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS



palmharborforecastcenter

2023-09-15 15:53:44

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