January 24, 2021

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…IOTA REACHES CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY…ISSUED NOV. 16, 2020…8:00 P.M. EST

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  Without these sites, I’m pretty much left in the dark.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the best information I use in my forecasts.
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 30
HURRICANES: 13
MAJOR HURRICANES: 6

U.S. LANDFALLS: 12
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
Hurricane IOTA is bearing down on the Nicaraguan coast.  This is one time I wish my forecast had not been correct…IOTA reached category 5 earlier today.  As of the 7:00 p.m. EST intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on IOTA:
7:00 PM EST Mon Nov 16
Location: 13.6°N 83.0°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 918 mb / 27.11 in
Max sustained: 160 mph
Current satellite loop imagery indicates IOTA may be beginning an EWRC, in which when this occurs, a hurricane begins to weaken.  However, with the hurricane being so close to landfall, residents along and near the Nicaraguan coast will be experiencing category 5 conditions, especially concerning storm surge.  This type of scenario with storm surge occurred with Katrina.  Katrina had been a category 5 hurricane, however prior to landfall, she had weakened to a category 3.  Given her size, the IKE was high enough to cause waves and seas of a category 5 storm out in the Gulf of Mexico.  These waves and seas made there way ashore upon Katrina making landfall.  When a hurricane is this strong, seas do not subside quickly, but decay at a slower pace.
GOES 16 IOTA FLOATER LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

There is really not much more than I can say, except I ask that everyone who follows me and my site, to PLEASE PRAY for these people.  There isn’t much more to add to the forecast.  IOTA should continue on the NHC forecast track, which is inline with current track guidance.

Catastrophic storm surge, and inland flooding will occur with this hurricane.  This is from the 4:00 p.m. discussion from the NHC:
This remains a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and it is exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less than two weeks ago.
NHC FORECAST TRACK

ATCF 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE

https://i2.wp.com/hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al312020/track_early/aal31_2020111700_track_early.png




Based on information using the I. K. E. (Integrated Kinetic Energy) calculator, based on current forecast sustained winds at landfall, the SDP (Surge Destructive Potential) is rated at 3.738.  The scale ranges from 0 – 6.

PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/142331.shtml?

NHC GRAPHICS LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/233129.shtml?3-daynl

Prayers to those in the path of this storm!  Godspeed!!

I will continue to monitor IOTA for any significant changes.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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