May 15, 2021

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HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…IOTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY…ISSUED NOV. 15, 2020…5:35 P.M. EST

6 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 30
HURRICANES: 13
MAJOR HURRICANES: 5

U.S. LANDFALLS: 12
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
Hurricane IOTA continues to rapidly intensify, and continues to indicate a core rapidly tightening in satellite loop imagery noted by the rapidly cooling cloud tops in the CDO surrounding the eye of the hurricane:
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK IMAGE)

Maximum sustained winds were reported to be 90 mph.  As of the 4:00 p.m. EST advisory from the NHC, the following was available.
4:00 PM EST Sun Nov 15
Location: 13.3°N 79.3°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb / 28.76 in
Max sustained: 90 mph
The hurricane continues to rapidly organize and become more symmetric.  IOTA is in a very favorable upper level environment at the moment, based on the current CIMSS shear and upper level winds maps.  Shear is very low, and the flow id now spreading our radially, and upper level outflow is almost textbook.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP

UPPER LEVEL WINDS


Based on my analysis of shear, and 200 mb forecast maps from the ECMWF, as well as RH forecast maps up through the mid levels, IOTA is forecast to remain in an extremely favorable environment of low shear, excellent outflow, and high moisture environment, up until the hurricane makes landfall.  IOTA will also be traversing 28.0 – 29.0 C SST’s all the way until landfall.
ECMWF FORECAST SHEAR, 200 MB STREAMLINE, AND 500 MB RH MAPS





SHIPS diagnostics indicates wind shear to remain below 12 kts the remainder of the forecast period:
SHIPS DIAGNOSTIC REPORT LINK
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al312020/stext/20111518AL3120_ships.txt
Based on these forecast parameters, I concur with the NHC intensity forecast in that IOTA will attaining CAT 4 status (which I mentioned last night).  However, based on the excellent parameters I am seeing in the forecast maps, I am not ruling out the possibility of IOTA briefly becoming a CAT 5 hurricane, save any EWRC prior to landfall.  If at all possible, residents near and along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras should evacuate immediately!
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 15/2100Z 13.3N 79.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 13.6N 80.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 14.0N 82.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 14.3N 83.6W 105 KT 120 MPH…INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 14.4N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
60H 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
72H 18/1800Z 14.1N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
96H 19/1800Z…DISSIPATED
IOTA is moving toward the W, and based on my analysis of current forecast steering layers maps, IOTA should continue on a general W to WNW track up until landfall.  The current layer mean steering shows the ridge currently steering IOTA.  After the hurricane makes landfall and begins to weaken, the steering pattern begins to change, and IOTA should make the WSW turn shown in the forecast track.  Based on this, I agree with the NHC forecast track, which is inline with the dynamic and consensus model guidance:
CURRENT STEERING LAYER MAP

18Z ATCF TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE


NHC FORECAST TRACK




Based on information using the I. K. E. (Integrated Kinetic Energy) calculator, based on current forecast sustained winds at landfall, the SDP (Surge Destructive Potential) is rated at 3.15.  The scale ranges from 0 – 6.

PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/142331.shtml?

NHC GRAPHICS LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/233129.shtml?3-daynl

Prayers to those in the path of this storm!  Godspeed!!

I will continue to monitor IOTA for any significant changes.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST



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