July 21, 2024

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Weather News & Forecast

HURRICANE IDALIA ATTAINS CAT 4 STATUS…MAKES LANDFALL AS A CAT 3 / POSSIBLE GOMEX MISCHIEF

5 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 15
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:          9
HURRICANES:                3
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2

Given that the NHC has named at least 3 garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone!
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.

Hurricane IDALIA made landfall this morning at 7:45 a.m. EDT as a category 3 hurricane near Keaton Beach, FL. with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph.  IDALIA had attained category 4 status on the 5:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, having attained maximum sustained winds of 130 mph.  Based on forecast steering and track guidance models, IDALIA should continue on the current NHC forecast track.  This will be my last on IDALIA, however I will continue to monitor the system for any significant changes to the forecast or unforeseen surprises.
NHC FORECAST TRACK AND RECENT GUIDANCE
cone graphic
https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2023/al102023/track_early/aal10_2023083012_track_early.png
I am currently monitoring INVEST 94L over the Cabo Verde islands.  Analysis of forecast RF, wind shear and 200 mb pattern do indicate favorable conditions within the next couple of days for gradual development of this system.  I’m not really concerned with this right now, as we have plenty of time to monitor it, and the current forecast, based on forecast steering and MSLP anomaly animations, have this continuing on a NW track.
WEATHERNERDS INVEST 94L SATELLITE LOOP
INVEST 94L.IR
INVEST 94L
This may not pan out, however a possibility could exist in that we may have to keep an eye on the NW GOMEX within about 5 – 7 daysThe current forecast by the majority of the phase space diagrams for the MJO tend to indicate the MJO to move into phase 4 and possibly 5 near that time frame
ECMF
EMON
GMON
JMAN
mjo_rmm.daily.20230828
Based on the correlation of observed development from a technique by Fredric Vitart, the following phase 4 and 5 map indicate in orange and red, where observed tropical cyclones occurred.  You’ll note a real small area over the GOMEX.
Same-as-Figure-2-MJO VITART
In addition, the forecast 500 mb anomaly pattern calls for ridging over the northern U.S.  This particular setup  (strength / shape) is what we term as “a ridge over trouble water”) as high pressure flows into lower pressure, so we usually look to the SW in the Gulf for possible trof development.
ECMWF AND ECMWF EPS 500 MB ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-3872000
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-3828800
1. The flow of air from high pressure region to low pressure region causes wind.
Again, phases 4 – 6 are considered suppressed phases for the Atlantic, it will remain to be seen if anything occurs.  I will however be monitoring this over the next week, to see what actually happens.

I will not have a forecast tomorrow, as I need to go through the image library and delete some graphics as the graphics file is almost at capacity.

The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

 



palmharborforecastcenter

2023-08-30 20:06:49

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