December 4, 2022

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HURRICANE IAN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 26, 2022…10:15 P.M. EDT

10 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

U. S. LANDFALLS: 1

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

IAN is now a CAT 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph, and the following was available from the NHC 8:00 p.m. intermediate advisory:
8:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 26
Location: 20.8°N 83.3°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 965 mb / 28.50 in
Max sustained: 100 mph

Satellite loop imagery indicated earlier that IAN looked a little degraded.  However, in the lat few frames in the loop, it appears a counter-clockwise wobble occurred, and it appears there has been a center reformation slightly west, with a burst of convection noted.  Based on this, and a drop in barometric pressure from 972 mb, down to 965 mb in a 3 hour period, I believe IAN will begin continued strengthening, and I am still calling for more rapid intensification during the next 24 hours.  You’ll note in the water vapor loop that will be posted below, there is now plenty of moisture at the mid level.
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP
floater_floater_AL092022_band13_24fr_20220926-2039
I believe one reason for the less organized appearance may be that the radial shear pattern that was directly overhead of IAN, has been displaced south of the center, allowing for some slight shear to affect the storm, along with a slight degradation of the upper level outflow pattern.  In order for RI to continue, these 2 features need to be pretty well aligned over the center of the hurricane.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
IAN.SHEAR
IAN.upper
Though this has occurred, analysis again of the ECMWF and GFS models still indicate the same improving parameters from yesterday evenings forecast in both moisture and the upper pattern.  Based on this, and the still extremely high OHC in the path of IAN, I have to once again agree with the NHC intensity forecast, and that IAN will briefly attain CAT 4 status.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 26/2100Z 20.3N 83.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.7N 83.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 23.6N 84.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 27.5N 83.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 28.1N 82.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 30.1N 82.3W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 33.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND

In about 36 hours, wind shear is forecast to increase to a little over 20 kts, with the shear pattern beginning to become more zonal, with the upper level outflow pattern diminishing as well.  The hurricane is forecast to begin weakening as it approaches the Florida coast from CAT 3 to CAT 2.  Storm surge is forecast along the west coast of Florida, and is represented in the following graphics.  The surge values could be closer to the CAT 3 graphic, as although the storm should be weakening, it takes the surge more time to diminish, so the experience could be CAT 3 storm surge.  This is based on current forecast track and forecast intensity.  Example was KATRINA.  She was a CAT 5, and weakened to CAT 3 before landfall, however MS. still received the surge of a CAT 5 hurricane.
IAN STORM SURGE MEAN TIDE
IAN.displayCAT3mean
HIGH TIDE
IAN.displayCAT3HIGH

IAN is currently moving toward the NNW, and based on forecast steering maps, should begin more of a northward turn as it nears the western tip of Cuba.
NHC TRACKING MAP (LINKED)
223342_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

I am a little perplexed this evening, as current layer mean steering indicates the current flow could send IAN more toward the east earlier, as the trof seems extremely sharp.  However, water vapor loop imagery in the mid level which represents approx. 500 mb, indicates the current trof creating the weakness is much flatter in nature, and is more inline with the global models geopotential height forecast.  Based on my analysis of forecast steering maps, current track guidance modeling, and the 500 mb geopotential height forecast, I still at the moment have to go with the NHC forecast track, which brings the hurricane over my area in the Tampa Bay area.  Another reason for my decision is that, the ECMWF has not budged from its forecast track…for 3 days, and the GFS has come more toward the ECMWF.  Guidance indicates the more accurate track models come over the Tampa Bay area, along with the ECMWF.  I will monitor this however, for any significant changes in the track motion.  Again, conditions can change quickly, but the current analysis indicates really no major change in track at the moment for the next 12 hours.
CURRENT LAYER MEAN STEERING
wg8dlm3
WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY
G16_conus_band09_24fr_20220926-2047
ECMWF AND GFS 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_barbs-1664193600-1664236800-1664452800-40
gfs-deterministic-conus-z500_barbs-1664215200-1664236800-1664452800-40
CURRENT TRACK GUIDANCE
aal09_2022092700_track_early
AL09_current
WATCHES AND WARNINGS

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None. 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Flamingo to Englewood
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Anclote River
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
* Saint Johns River
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River
* Bonita Beach to Englewood
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and 
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in 
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please 
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, 
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation. 
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions 
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa
Bay...5-10 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...5-8 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft
* Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...
4-7 ft
* Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
* Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of
onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early
Tuesday.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Cuba tonight. Destructive winds are possible where the core of Ian
moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday.
Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida
within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area by Tuesday evening.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on
Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area on Wednesday into early Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle
Florida Keys on Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.
* Coastal Southwest and Southeast Florida: 4 to 6 inches with local
maxima up to 10 inches.
* Central West Florida: 6 to 12 inches, with local maxima up to 20
inches.
* Northeast Florida: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 12
inches.
* Remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula:  4 to 8 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the Southeast U.S. Friday and
Saturday. Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding, and
prolonged significant river flooding impacts are likely mid-to-late
week across central and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and
coastal South Carolina. Flash and urban flooding impacts are also
possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula through mid week. Limited flooding impacts and rises on
area streams and rivers are also possible over portions of the
Southeast mid-to-late week.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday
across the Florida Keys and the southern/central Florida Peninsula.
SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico tonight.  Swells are expected to begin affecting
the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the west coast
of Florida through Wednesday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
223342_key_messages_sm

223342_spanish_key_messages_sm

223342WPCERO_sm

223342WPCQPF_sm

The following link is for NWS local hurricane products.  Once you click the link, you want to click on the bold blue lettering under the Local Statement heading:
NWS LOCAL PRODUCTS LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls4+shtml/252217.shtml?

The following is my hurricane preparedness post from JAN. 27, 2022…PLEASE REVIEW:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/2022/01/27/%ef%bf%bchurricane-preparedness-information-guide-issued-jan-27-2022-1215-p-m-est/

The following map will allow to to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
I will continue to monitor this IAN for any significant changes in forecast conditions, as well as the remainder of the tropics.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-09-27 02:05:36

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