HURRICANE IAN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…IAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE…ISSUED SEP. 27, 2020…9:20 P.M. EDT
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 5
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES: 3
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
U. S. LANDFALLS: 1
2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter
As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.
2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will
IAN is now a CAT 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph, and the following was available from the NHC 8:00 p.m. intermediate advisory:
8:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 26
Location: 24.4°N 83.0°W
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb / 27.96 in
Max sustained: 120 mph
NHC TRACKING MAP (LINKED)
Satellite loop imagery this evening indicates although IAN is well organized, the imagery and radar loop from Key West indciate an EWRC may be beginning. Click the radar graphic for the loop.
GOES 16 HURRICANE IAN LOOP
This EWRC may slightly weaken the hurricane, and could cause a slight wobble in track. In analysis this evening, IAN is now dealing with wind shear from the SSW, with the center of the radial pattern well south of the eye. Although shear is present, the hurricane covers a very expansive area, and the shear is moving in the same direction as the hurricane. When this occurs, mainly in this situation with a very expansive system, wind shear usually doesn’t have that much of a detrimental effect on the system. Based on analysis of both the ECMWF and GFS wind shear forecast maps, shear will increase more prior to landfall, with the pattern becoming much less radial and more zonal, along with a quickly deteriorating upper level outflow pattern. However, during the next 24 hours, a 200 mb jetstreak will be located over the SEUS. This will allow the hurricane to be within the right rear entrance region of the jet, which will continue to ventilate the storm. THIS could be the reason the NHC has IAN restrengthening slightly prior to landfall. I do concur at the moment with the NHC intensity forecast, however this will depend on how IAN reacts to the possible EWRC. Based on this, IAN could become a CAT 4 very briefly, then weaken to CAT 3 right before landfall. Based on this, I will be posting SLOSH surge data based on both a CAT4 mean / high tide, and for a CAT3 mean and high tide, based on the updated forecast track. Please note, the surge values given are accurate to plus or minus 20%, meaning the value for minus 20% would correlate with a weaker storm of the category, and plus 20% for the higher end of the category.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ECMWF 200 MB FORECAST (ARROW POINTS TOWARD RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION)
IAN STORM SURGE DATA FOR CAT4 MEAN AND HIGH TIDE
IAN STORM SURGE DATA FOR CAT3 MEAN AND HIGH TIDE
The following is the surface winds forecast from the ECMWF and GFS in knots
ECMWF
GFS
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 5:00 P.M. EDT
INIT 27/2100Z 24.0N 83.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 25.3N 82.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 26.6N 82.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.0W 70 KT 80 MPH…INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
60H 30/0600Z 29.4N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 31.0N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH…OVER WATER
96H 01/1800Z 34.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROPICAL
120H 02/1800Z…DISSIPATED
IAN is now moving to the NNE. Earlier today, IAN began that north turn, and shortly thereafter, continued to slowly move toward the east, with the forecast track shifting slightly south and east during the day. This brought IAN just to the right of track, with the new forecast track taking the hurricane into or near the Ft. Myers area. This turn was a little sooner than forecast. I spent time analyzing the situation from my phone today, and what has appeared to happen was, the trof creating the weakness in the ridge, had become more pronounced, and moved deeper into the GOMEX, earlier than shown in the global models yesterday evening. You’ll notice this in the water vapor loop This is why the southward shift in forecast track. Based on my analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, I agree with the NHC forecast track (posted above). Analysis this evening of forecast track guidance shows guidance models are now very tightly clustered.
WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY
LAYER MEAN STEERING
00Z TRACK GUIDANCE
The following information is from the NHC. PLEASE FOLLOW IT CAREFULLY!
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas * Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River * St. Johns River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas * Suwannee River to the Anclote River * All of the Florida Keys * Flamingo to Altamaha Sound * Flamingo to Chokoloskee * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West * Florida Bay * Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft * Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-9 ft * Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6 ft * Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft * Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft * Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Mouth of the St. Mary's River, including St. Johns River...3-5 ft * Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft * St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft * Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft * East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft * Florida Keys...2-4 ft * Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft * Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the Florida Keys, and will continue overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of Florida beginning early Wednesday, and should spread up to Georgia and South Carolina on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday night: * Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16 inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba. * Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches. * Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with isolated totals up to 24 inches. * Eastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches. Widespread catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across central and west Florida beginning midweek. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina from the end of the week through the weekend. Limited river flooding is expected over portions of the southeastern United States into the Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across central and south Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
FLASH FLOOD RISK
RAINFALL FORECAST
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES
The following link is for NWS local hurricane products. Once you click the link, you want to click on the bold blue lettering under the Local Statement heading:
NWS LOCAL PRODUCTS LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls4+shtml/252217.shtml?
The following is my hurricane preparedness post from JAN. 27, 2022…PLEASE REVIEW:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/2022/01/27/%ef%bf%bchurricane-preparedness-information-guide-issued-jan-27-2022-1215-p-m-est/
The following map will allow to to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
I will continue to monitor this IAN for any significant changes in forecast conditions, as well as the remainder of the tropics.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
palmharborforecastcenter
2022-09-28 01:11:29
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