June 22, 2024

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Weather News & Forecast

Hurricane Harbor: Yellow Circle 10% Moving Towards Bahamas

5 min read

Good Morning from Miami

Took a walk for Ice Cream last night.
Walked out and this is what it looked like.

Literally point and shoot!

Woke up this morning, looked out the window at the planes flying high over the bay, the boats coming and going in waves of motion as the palm fronds dance in the tropical breeze. For real. And, there’s a yellow circle from the NHC with a 10 percent chance of forming into something, maybe. Sounds about right. If I was writing this script, I’d have written it just like this….. 

NHC writes nice iffy discussion this morning on how there is a surface through (as models predicted I may add) that is kicking up the weather in the Islands and while conditions are not really all that conducive, maybe it could try and get it’s act together into a tropical or subtropical system. Kind of a “we see it” and “yes the EURO” came on board a little, without the stronger support of the GFS obviously we will keep watching it!

This looks ominous. It’s not.

It’s a broad area of messy weather.

With low possibilities of 10%

Here’sthe EURO above.

The GFS below.

72 Hour forecast map.

There is no mighty hurricane about to devour Miami nor Melbourne, just a broken line across a wide area suggestive of “something” might be out there in 72 hours. A High to the NW of it as if it’s trying to hold the line against any tropical problems until at least June 1st!  A good illustration of the situation is below, basically showing how it gets scooped up and carried away.

This is explained well in the Tweet below.

Kind of an up, up and away dance to it.

Of course further out in the Atlantic….

…is out African Wave still hanging in there.

This is our tropical wave.

You can see the curves in the atmosphere.

It has a handsome signature on MIMIC.

Still there, still crazy after all these days.

So what can I really say today about this set up? The models did show a surge of convection where we have the yellow 10% circle that the NHC added to the maps. The Wave is still there a “WAVE” which really doesn’t mean much, except it’s May 23rd and generally it’s way too early for a westbound, wave to be still visible on satellite imagery. Still discernable when looking at satelitte imagery and stealing our attention from the little yellow 10% area that has a huge swath of moisture closer in to our world. The Wave is low, the Wave should make it to South America at this rate and possible Trinidad and Tobago as rain. This is not a “forecast” it’s a suggestion. I just woke up and am getting used to my son’s super faster Internet and only had one small Nespresso.  But the forecast for Saturday and Sunday there does show rain, so we will keep watching. 

I should be busy today doing not sure what…… as my schedule here today is iffy and if I just hang out after breakfast somewhere and play online and watch the boats sail in and out of the Port of Miami I may just do that. It was a nice but long drive down and due to tire blowing out quietly after changing the tire we stayed and played in Savannah as new tires were put on the car and everything was finally set to go. I do so love dawdling around Savannah, however it always makes the trip that can be done easily in one long day if you push it….. mean two long days on the road. Florida is long. Always seems to take forever, you can travel through several states going in any other direction from Raleigh but not Florida if you are going to Miami. And, my mind is messy with thoughts colliding on different matters while debating what really will or won’t happen this hurricane season.

To me it’s not about how many hurricanes will form or how much ACE we will see as Accumuulated Cyclone Energy is not my thing, my thing is trying to warn you to prepare for a busy hurricane season that looks as if it’ll be on steroids and….to see really, seriously what area will most likely be under the gun for landfalling tropical systems. Where vs how many is the bigger question. Will Major Hurricanes form in the Mid Atlantic and slice there way up through an opening in the large high pressure system allowing them to escape or will the High snap shut and will they be propelled towards impending landfall at the end of the High …where ever that unlucky edge sets up is where named storms will make landfall. This is what consumes my mind while I watch the first Atlantic Wave look as if its gonna go the distance before June 1st. Memories of Bertha dance in my mind.

So the best site I can think to put up today is Home Depot’s site for the Hurricane Season. No it’s not loaded with models nor satellite imagery or blogs explaining discussion, it’s hard facts on what you need to do to protect your home, your business and how to properly prepare for the 2024 Hurricane Season. If you are not creative or an old timer it even has “hurricane kits” with everything you need. If nothing else, use it as a good suggestion of what you may need this hurricane season!

Til 5/27 they have a good grill on sale.
Why a grill?

You can cook on it… duh.

No seriously …

Grills are not just for hot dogs on holidays.

Get a grill with a burner… you can cook…

…when you have no power for days, weeks.

I may update later if I have the time and…

…if there’s anything new to add.

Again above you see our surge of moisture from the Caribbean into the Atlantic, up and up and away. You can see the little wave approaching South America and if so then the first wave of the season actually made the crossing intact. There’s a new wave emerging off of Africa. Each new wave, each new day brings us closer to Hurricane Season. Stock up, follow the list you should have already made and have a wonderful Memorial Day knowing that no local beach town is expected to have that holiday ruined or soaked in tropical rainfall. That’s a win on many levels.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Ps I have a friend from Miami from high school who lives in Georgia and she quilts with pieces of colorful fabric. It occurred to me as I type this that I also have a hobby quilting, but it’s quilting with words, images and music to try and help people better prepared for Hurricane Season as well as an impending hurricane with the most time and information they can attain on the wonderful world wide web 😉 as we use call it. I have very few friends from highschool who still live in Miami (hmmm they mostly moved away….) and yet everyone has a cousin in Miami that is true.

noreply@blogger.com (BobbiStorm)

2024-05-23 12:58:00

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