December 4, 2022

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Weather News & Forecast

Hurricane Harbor: Tuesday Morning Tracking 2 Invests

12 min read

Models keep it out to sea.

But they do lean West for a while.

Possibly looping away out in the Atlantic.

Florence survivors forever worry on these.

Ppl never forget Florence in the Carolinas.

But this should stay out at sea.

As always monitor in real time.

But as it moves West to friendlier waters…

….it could develop and strut it’s stuff.

Visible imagery shows a small, tight ball of convection.

Center is not very visible anywhere.

Small waves can spin up fast.

Intensify fast. Fall apart fast.

Always watch small tight systems.

Larger waves take long to pull together.

In the Mimic image below that basically tracks moisture, you can see how dry it is in the Far North Atlantic and over the East coast all the way down towards North Florida that has blue skies in the Panhandle. Winter Temperatures reigning cool breezes and uplifting Carolinians moods as we begin to think on fire pits, pumpkin fields and trips to the Farmer’s Market to find Fall vegetables. High School Football and opening the windows and turning off the AC for a bit. A far cry from what people in SW Florida are going through and yet I know people locally who are totally involved all day in trying to send relief to those in need. One beautiful thing about the Carolinas is how people are given over to chartity on all levels. I noticed that first year here when I walked into the grocery story and local bank and there were donation boxes filled with coats and sweaters being collected for those in need as winter approaches. And, people know that Hurricane Season is not over, and though it’s rare to think on Hurricanes in October many remember that Hurricane Hazel, Matthew and Sandy and numerous others found their way to the Carolinas or the Mid Atlantic by way of a beautiful strong cold front.  So for now the high pressure is keeping this Invest South, as we see things can change and we watch in case things change. SW Caribbean is an area where nasty storms form in October so while we should not obsess on it, just keep watching to make sure it cruises West or doesn’t form into a hurricane.  As the long read part of this blog today on Hurricane History way below shows we are blessed today to be able to watch a cluster of clouds in the Caribbean and get updates in real time and have models that keep running finding solutions that tell us either it’s not a problem or a problem could be evolving.  Weather evolves, it’s not stagnant and it’s always changing, rearranging and flowing. 

You can see that Invest 92L is more tightly wound than Invest 91L, yet all eyes are on 91L as it seems way too similar to Fiona and Ian that tracked low and became storms both in the Caribbean and people had to deal with it further to the North as Fiona developed and made landfall. Anything that gets into the Caribbean near the large gyre down there that usually enhances development this time of year has a chance of being pulled North by a diving cold front, and as cold fronts have been the signature this year and stronger now than when Fiona was there it’s important to remember hurricane season is not over yet. The loop below shows you the story in motion. Again cold fronts deflect hurricanes but they can also grab the hurricane and bring it straight to you. It’s way too soon to tell so all I’m saying is watch it as this is prime development area for October. Often October delivers hurricanes to Central America that we never hear from again, other times they find a way out of the Caribbean.

So this is the short read part of the blog today based on the current state of the tropics, while people in SW Florida take boat rides out to their homes or what is left of them to see for themselves what they can retrieve or see. The ones that stayed and survived will most likely never stay for a hurricane again whether they are in the Cone two days out or on the edge of the cone. The death toll is still climbing, way over a 100 in 2022 from a landfalling hurricane that the media spoke of and warned on before it even formed for a week before it made landfall. 

Only way to get in and out is by boat.

But there’s lots of boats …. and airboats….

….no shortage of boats!

SW Florida is filled with boats of all size, people live near the water so they can be on the water and air boats that cruise the marshy area are being used in mutliple ways for people to get back and forth to islands now cut off from the mainland. Boats are the only way in and out and there is no lack of boats in that region.

Personally I’m close friends with people at Chabad of Estero, one of my closest friends lives there and has been helping nonstop in every way they can. Yesterday a Food Truck, a kosher food truck, drove over from Miami and set up by the Chabad House giving out free food, drink and help to anyone who came by.  Bonita Springs and the village of Estero are beautiful communities most days of the year, but on that one day in 100 years that a Major Hurricane makes landfall nearby it’s needy, people don’t have power and they need to charge their cell phones to let people know they are okay and alive. They need food, they need the most basic supplies and I have friends personally who are working their doing what they can every minute of the day. It’s heartwarming the many ways people find to do good in the middle of such devastation and loss.  Everyone in the entire area destroyed or impacted by Ian needs help of some kind. 

I gave here and I’ll continue to give what I can, I ask you give what you can but make sure the donation is going directly to the people who need it. That’s why I always link to the as I know it’s legit and I know the work they are doing at Chabad of Estero/Bonita Springs is legit, so find a charity and give give what you can.  

My daughter works with United Hatzalah of Israel in the Miami office coordinating many projects, she sent me images last night of people on the ground at shelters comforting and providing help of many kids especially psychologically as they have special trauma units that work in Israel and have been working in Europe with refugees from Ukraine, now in Florida. Heartwarming to see how people jump on a plane and go into action to help others in need. Link below the to the blog with more information.

The rest of this blog is a longread on Hurricane History and what is more historic than a hurricane that is literally a 100 Year Storm so let’s learn from history, compare and contrast this with the 1921 Hurricane and also compare and contrast with Hurricane Bret that made landfall in a natural area as opposed to the two major cities in Texas that were warned of it’s approach, and people complained about being told to evacuate and nothing happened. And that happens every time someone in Florida from the Florida Keys to the Panhandle evacuates and then complains they didn’t have to as the storm was weaker than expected the day before or wobbled to the left or the right and someone else got the eye and they could have stayed home. This happens literally every single time. 

Be a part of the solution not the problem. There’s room for improvement in how we warn people and we need to find a way to get people living on a low lying strip of land to take the warnings seriously. Maybe we need to find a way that they trust us more and understand better how unpredictable hurricanes can be as they approach landfall.

I’ll be offline tomorrow for Yom Kippur so follow the NHC and Spaghetti Models or whatever site or App you use to track the tropics and hopefully the Caribbean cruiser will cruise West doing little damage and not be some remake of other infamous hurricanes that found somehow a way out of the deep SW Caribbean. So today’s blog is a Longread if you keep reading, and I hope you do, and again I’ll be off til late Wednesday evening for Yom Kippur. 

* * * 

What mistakes were made forecasting Ian?

What mistakes were made by late evacuation orders?

Why did people stay?

Why didn’t they leave?

History is filled with Hurricane like Ian.

1900 Galveston Hurricane

1935 Labor Day Hurricane.

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane

Difference is now we have a Cone.

We have satellite imagery.

We KNOW it’s there….

…yet still people gamble with their lives.

Don’t gamble with your life!

Err on the side of safely.

Leave, pray u have something to go back to.

The above is a screenshot of my blog when Ian was first pulling it together in the Caribbean as the NHC predicted it would form and become a strong hurricane that moves up towards the Eastern Gulf of Mexico threatening a devastating landfall. They were on this before it even had a closed center and they talked incessantly on the threat it carried up the road near Florida as a Major Hurricane. I’d even say they went out on a limb for them to predict it to be a Major Hurricane, before it even had a closed center.

September 25th.

Yes center of cone ended further North.

It was just a TS barely formed.

Not bad for “while it was forming”

Storm surge moves North WITH the storm.

3 days before it made landfall….

I’m an old time Floridian, 4th generation whose family spent much time in the Tampa area as well as the Florida Keys. I would have viewed that graphic, if I still lived there, as “oh my gosh we have to get ready just in case” because when you live in an area where hurricanes make landfall you ALWAYS have to have in mind “just in case” and you always have to expect last minute changes will be made to even the best forecasts. Anyone who has been through Andrew or Florence looks at a Cone not at the line, unless the line is directly over them,  but at the part of the cone closest to them and worries they will get that storm. Even if they are on the right edge or left edge of the cone or even a few counties over after being in a Major Hurricane you always think the hurricane has your name on it.  Sadly, all those people who got lucky time and time again and never had a major hurricane assumed they would be “fine” it will go somewhere else and they didn’t have energy for an evacuation. 

Honestly, it all costs a fortune to prepare for a landfall, let alone an evacuation. But as a friend of mine back when said as Katrina was moving towards landfall near New Orleans “if he didn’t have a dime to his name he’d take he’d begin walking North to higher ground” because he calculated that trip on foot and there was time to walk out of danger. I thought it was a bit dramatic when he said it, but I’m from Miami where “Park and Ride” buses used for Dolphin games take people who need rides off Miami Beach to shelters. He was right though as lives would had been saved had some people just grabbed a back pack and began walking past I-10 to higher ground whether alone or with family and friends. That walk is easier to do in areas near New Orleans than Fort Myers, but it was clear that Fort Myers Beach was in the path of storm surge or a landfall with any shift of the cone, and people need to stop looking at the cone as if it’s set in stone but knowing it can move even on the 4th and 5th day closer to your town that looked as if it was on the edge of the cone only 3 days before landfall. 

Hurricane forecasting is an imperfect scientific and mathematical job and if you studied science in school you know when doing an experiment if you change any element or it’s not done properly the results vary. 

That is what happens when Andrew wobbles suddenly to the South or Ian leans to the right and the cone is moved a bit more to the right before landfall as seen above.

My family had a photo taken of their home in Tampa and next to it was another home they also owned but rented out. A friendly photographer lived on that block and the image is recorded in history. It looks kind of ragged and not like the home they described that was painted white with gardens and roses and greenery all around the porch that had comfortable furniture on it. You know why it looks like some house out on the prairie during the dust bowl? Beause the picture was taken just after the Tampa Bay 1921 Hurricane hit Tampa. You can see the tree in the upper left corner is stripped of leaves making it look like a “winter” picture but this is Tampa and those trees that were once beautiful, huge green trees with hanging moss. Ain’t no hanging moss in this picture below.

To the far right you see a barren tree too.

But in it’s day it was a cute, upscale little home in Tampa.

Just West of Ybor City where they had offices.

Cigar Business and other businesses.

Inland so to speak just North of Tampa Bay.

Far enough North of the bay to survive…

…but close enough to never forget a hurricane’s fury.

Didn’t get storm surge but it got wind.

Nebraska Avenue running N and S just E of the highway.

Just West of Ybor City is where that house was in 1921.

An incredible article written last year…

…100 year annivesary of the 1921 Cane.

Maybe one person read it and evacuated FMB.

History empowers us with knowledge.

The link is below to this article, great read.

Lots of pictures.

The 1 building left standing above was near the red dot.

On a barrier island…. a beautiful barrier island.

No bridge yet in 1921, just a ferry to get to safety.

Honestly if you have “problems” with the way the NHC forecast a Major Hurricane before it even formed and 3 days before Ian made landfall, from a clump of mishaped clouds in the Caribbean and the public was warned online, on social media and The Weather Channel warned people in it’s path nonstop around the clock then you need to rethink how fickle hurricanes can be and how hard they are to forecast when you have a closed center, let alone before you have a closed center in a clump of clouds in the Caribbean. I’m amazed Mike has a voice left after talking nonstop on Facebook Live and YouTube trying to help people find their evacuation zones and to take Ian seriously on Mike’s Weather Page with thousands of people listening live I am sure he saved someone’s life, being as old Florida as it gets and living in the Tampa area he took this storm very personally as I did and yet sadly many do not trust the people trying to save their lives. 

The image above is from a larger article that is linked below about the 100 Year Hurricane written last year at the 100 year anniversary of the 1921 Tampa Hurricane, 101 years later Fort Myers to the South a sister like city to Tampa Bay was slammed by the same type of dangerous Category 4 Hurricane. 

CORTEZ – It was 100 years ago this month when a handful of people at the Albion Inn heard an announcement on the only radio in the fishing village about a big blow coming” (BobbiStorm)

2022-10-04 15:52:00

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