Track basically still the same.
Morning Visible shows the “center”
The mass of convection is to the right of it.
Sheared but still messy.
And if it wraps around the center….
..we could get 45 MPH or 50 MPH TS!
Could… it’s happening in real time this time.
Models clustered tightly.
This comes from the https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Simply go to watches and warnings.
All of S Florida has a Tropical Storm Warning.
Expected winds in excess of 40 MPH…
…on top of flooding rain.
Not a Cat 3 but not a picnic.
Another feature shows you time of winds arrival.
It can be personalized by you …
Rain will spread across Florida all day as it’s the rainy season and storms being SHEARED off of the blob adjacent to the center but to the NE of the center will fling off the larger mass and spray some suburb of Miami or random Florida Keys community with wild, sudden gusts and extremely heavy rain before moving away faster than you knew what hit you! LATER THIS EVENING the squalls will get worse and more common. In the early hours of Saturday morning after midnight the winds will pick up and tomorrow you will get constant squalls, flooding rain and Tropical Storm force winds…. eventually late Saturday Night (if the forecast is not changed by the NHC in real time (11 AM, 5 PM, 11 PM, 5 PM) the bulk of the weather and wind will depart and it will clear up some and you can see if you lost your small new Mango Tree or if palm fronds are down or if your lawn furniture is in your angry neighbor’s backyard pool. Maybe you will have flooding, generally the same area floods but you never know with weak Tropical Storms. Maybe you will have a power outage (crap) hopefully you will not (yay) and this is the way of the world with developing Tropical Storms that get stronger and pull together as they cross the finish line.
Alexa told me it would “rain” in Miami tomorrow and there was a Tropical Storm Warning. That did not help my kid who wanted to know “what time it will be really bad” and so I put on TWC that normally does a great job and is doing a good job but they seem to be missing the point and there was a long pre-taped episode explaining RUGBY. I get it. It’s confusing.
The good news is this is forming Tropical Storm that maybe is quacking like a Subtropical Storm BUT the DEVIL is in the DETAILS. IT HAS 40 MPH WIND now with a forming circulation and by Saturday despite the shear you may get 45 MPH winds sustained or in frequent gusts. Yesterday in Miami I know 2 people in 2 different neighborhoods because a LIVE POWERLINE was down and FPL and the Fire Department had to rush there and fix the dangerous situation. Note…. this was not related to a TS with 45 MPH winds (expected possibly) so judge your “taking the dog out for a long walk” carefully. Stay close to home, enjoy the respite from 90 degree weather, watch through the unboarded windows and hopefully you keep power WHOOSH it’s gone by Sunday! See above picture that was taken in North Dade and note my daughter had a Live Wire down YESTERDAY in nearby Broward. If that happened in a strong TStorm extrapolate that for an ALL DAY event with winds up to 45 MPH blowing. Trust me someone is gonna lose power and live wires will be down so do NOT walk into puddles.
Lay low, let it blow and wait for it to blow over.
I’ll update after the 11 AM Advisory and later throughout the day. I’ll be on Twitter all day while cooking for my Sabbath on Saturday and the Cheesecake holiday of Shavous after that.
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